A cartoon in Sunday’s Ha’aretz depicts US President Donald Trump calling Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about the assassination of IRGC Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani, and telling him, “I hope it helps.”
While helping Netanyahu to remain prime minister was unlikely a consideration for Trump in deciding to eliminate the terrorist mastermind, the impact of the killing in Israel is undoubtedly positive for Netanyahu – at least for now. Netanyahu has an interest in keeping security issues, which are his strong suit, at the top of the public agenda.
The hosts of the two Saturday night news shows on Channel 12, Rina Matzliah and Dana Weiss, joked on air about how, due to the assassination and a Tel Aviv flood tragedy, Netanyahu’s request for immunity from prosecution in his criminal cases only two nights earlier had already been forgotten. A spokesman for a senior Likud figure joked privately on Saturday night about sending Trump flowers for changing the subject in Israel.
Blue and White Party leader Benny Gantz, by contrast, was a victim of the targeted strike. He was hoping to keep the immunity issue front and center, but saw instead that its shelf life was even shorter than expected.
Gantz had no choice but to issue a statement applauding the assassination. He tried to temper it by warning Likud politicians not to speak irresponsibly about the strike, in order to differentiate himself, but he got hurt on both sides.
The Right gives Netanyahu credit for moves made by his friend Trump, and the Left complains that Gantz’s security policies are identical to Netanyahu’s. The headline of a Gideon Levy column under the cartoon in Ha’aretz was, “Biden’s against it, but Gantz applauds.”
Further damage was caused to Gantz by the reaction of Arab MKs, who criticized the assassination of the Iranian arch terrorist. It will now be even harder for Gantz to justify forming a minority government backed from outside the coalition by those same MKs. And that could be the only coalition Gantz could build after the March 2 election.
But perhaps it is premature to declare Netanyahu the victor and Gantz the loser in the assassination’s impact on the election.
So far, Netanyahu has succeeded in silencing his ministers on the issue, and preventing embarrassing statements connecting Israel to the hit. But there is a security cabinet meeting on the matter on Monday, and perhaps there will be leaks that harm Netanyahu and his political allies.
There could also be retaliation against Israel for the American strike, which could result in Israeli casualties and the paralysis of large parts of the country. Such developments would undoubtedly harm Netanyahu’s image as “Mr. Security.”
Netanyahu could also be targeted himself, which could be one of the reasons he came home early from Greece. That is why the same cartoon depicted him receiving Trump’s call, while sheltering under his desk.
What could also happen is that Soleimani, like other mega-terrorists before him, will be long forgotten by the time the country casts ballots on March 2. It is possible that Netanyahu’s corruption cases will be back at the top of the headlines in the days before the polling stations open.
If Trump wants to help Netanyahu win the race, he will have to find something new, when the timing is most critical.