US President Donald Trump's refusal to fight other peoples' wars could change the US presence in the Middle East and the military aid Israel receives, both through monetary grants or physical presence.

Under the agreement reached between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and then-US President Barack Obama covering the period between 2019-2028, Israel would receive from the US $3.3 billion annually for procurement and an additional $500 million for collaboration on air defense. That agreement was signed in 2016, so Trump will determine the future of US aid.

The Israel-Hamas War represented a turning point in US aid sent to Israel both financially and physically. According to a paper published by Brown University's Watson Institue for International and Public Affairs entitled the "Costs of War" project, US assistance to Israel totaled $17.9 billion in the first twelve months of the war alone, of which $6.8 billion was military financing and $4.5 billion was missile defense.

On the physical side, the US deployed a THAAD battery in Israel, supplementing Israel's multi-layer air defense array. US Navy ships also intercepted many aerial threats launched by various adversaries toward Israel.

"The US deployment in the region is a deterrent element," General (res.) Doron Gavish, former commander of Israel's air defenses, remarked. "The second thing is the operational element, since the US presence expands the range of solutions to the threat, whether in defense against missiles and rockets or in defense against UAVs."

US President Donald Trump takes oath on the day of his Presidential Inauguration at the Rotunda of the U.S. Capitol in Washington, US, January 20, 2025. (credit: REUTERS/KEVIN LAMARQUE)
US President Donald Trump takes oath on the day of his Presidential Inauguration at the Rotunda of the U.S. Capitol in Washington, US, January 20, 2025. (credit: REUTERS/KEVIN LAMARQUE)

Withdrawing US forces overseas

There is concern that just as Trump is expected to order the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq, he will also do so from Syria and Israel, as well as change the structure of US aid.

Jacob (Yaki) Dayan, a former diplomat in the Israeli embassy in Washington DC and Israeli consul general in Los Angeles, said, "Israel will be required to give more in exchange for aid. The aid package from 2029 will have to be settled next year. Trump will demand that the package includes a quid pro quo on Saudi Arabia and Iran."