For 37 years, Adm. (ret.) Michael S. Rogers served in the US security establishment, including in senior positions as head of the National Security Agency (NSA) and commander of the US Army Cyber Command.
He served under two presidents who were very different in their policies and personalities, Barack Obama and Donald Trump, and had access to the deepest secrets of the world’s greatest power.
As someone who was involved in crucial US intelligence issues, Rogers knows a thing or two about living in an uncertain world. But the kind of resilience he sees in the Israeli people, he said, he has not seen anywhere else.
“It’s truly extraordinary how this country functions even in such situations,” he said in an interview with Globes during a recent trip to Israel. “I was in work meetings in Tel Aviv when an air raid siren went off. We all went down to the protected space, with no pressure, no drama, opened our laptops, and continued the meeting from inside the shelter, as if nothing had happened. As an American, I was stunned. We would have had panic, evacuation, a commission of inquiry. Here, they go back to work after 20 minutes, as if it was nothing. It’s surreal – but it’s also strength. The society here has learned to go on functioning amid chaos.”
Nevertheless, as someone who comes here several times a year, as a partner in Israeli venture capital group Team8 and advisory committee chairman for cyber unicorn Claroty, he is aware of the despair and frustration.
“My previous visit was in January this year, and I can already sense a change. People are asking, ‘When will it end? How will it end?’ There is weariness, a feeling that we’re stuck in a loop.
“Perhaps this isn’t unique to Israel. I see the same sense of lack of clarity in the US, in Europe, even in Australia and East Asia. We are in an era where old certainties – political, technological, geopolitical – are being shaken, and the West is struggling to respond. But it’s more intense in Israel because there’s a real war here.”
“Intelligence requires dialogue”
Rogers believes that October 7 was not only an Israeli tragedy, but also a global lesson about the limitations of intelligence networks and the importance of professional humility.
“When you’re in intelligence,” he explained, “you must never believe that you have perfect knowledge. You can have very high confidence, but you mustn’t think you know everything. That’s the moment when you begin to fail.”
Regarding the after-the-fact reports of warnings that were allegedly ignored, such as those of the NCO in Unit 8200, Rogers noted that in the US and in the NSA, “there are procedures that allow an analyst to say, ‘I feel that I’m not being listened to.’” He emphasized, however, that “true intelligence professionals need to operate out of dialogue, even with people who disagree with them.”
But, he added, this problem is not unique to Israel. “In the US, too, I encountered situations in which the president himself said to me, ‘Mike, I don’t see things the way you do.’ It happens. But I’ve always tried to understand, why? What does he see that I don’t see? What am I missing?”
He added that the problem has become even more severe in the age of fake news, disinformation, and social networks.
“Today, it’s very difficult to know what’s real. When intelligence personnel rely on open sources – journalism, networks, media – much of the information is false or biased. And then you ask yourself: ‘Whom do I believe? What’s really happening?’ This is a dilemma that many countries are struggling with.”
Rogers was born and raised in Chicago. In junior high school, he joined the US Naval Sea Cadet Corps, an organization sponsored by the US Navy. After graduating from Auburn University in 1981, he enlisted in the navy and began his career as a combat officer. He participated in the invasion of Grenada, in the multinational force that was assigned to oversee the withdrawal of PLO personnel from Beirut, and in maritime patrol operations near El Salvador. In 1986, he moved into intelligence, and was appointed a cryptology officer.
He served in various positions, and in 2003 joined the Joint Chiefs of Staff, where he specialized in computer network attacks. In 2009, he was appointed director of intelligence for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and later commander of US Fleet Cyber Command and commander of the US 10th Fleet. In 2014, president Obama appointed him head of the NSA and commander of the US Army Cyber Command.
He holds a master’s degree in national security, is a distinguished graduate of the National War College, and a summa cum laude graduate of the college. He is also a fellow in the MIT Seminar XXI program and a graduate of the Senior Executives in National and International Security program at Harvard University.
While he was on his latest visit, Israel renewed its airstrikes in the Gaza Strip. “As someone who follows patterns,” Rogers said, “it seems to me this is increased pressure, a message to Hamas saying, ‘If you don’t come back to the negotiating table, we will escalate. It doesn’t look like the beginning of a broad operation at the moment.”
He also identified a direct connection to the new administration in Washington. “We’re now seeing a discourse of almost unqualified support for Israel – politically, economically, and militarily. President Trump and the White House issued a clear statement of 100% support for Israel and transferred arms consignments that the previous administration had halted.
“When Washington sees that the pressure is starting to move Hamas, it’s an indication that American support has significance beyond just symbolism. But the question is, will this be enough to reach a settlement, or will the fundamental gaps between the sides continue to prevent a solution?”
Iran’s weakness exposed
One of the most fascinating points in talking with Rogers was the way he viewed the dramatic change in the strategic balance in the region since October 7. He said that in contrast to how Israel was perceived in the immediate aftermath as a country that had been severely harmed, now, a year and a half later, the situation is completely reversed.
“What’s happened since then is amazing. The main links in Iran’s chain – Hezbollah, Hamas, and even the Houthis in Yemen – have been hit hard. In addition, Iran’s ability to defend itself has been exposed as weak. It fired missiles at Israel, twice, and ended up with nothing. There were aerial explosions, there were Iron Dome and Patriot interceptions – but there was no damage, at least not to human life.
“Moreover, Israel managed to strike deep inside Iran, at advanced antiaircraft facilities, and proved that it has the ability to go in and out without retaliation.”
What does Tehran think, in the light of these failures?
“That’s a good question. At the moment, they have three options. The first is to double down on their efforts, send more weapons, more money, to more proxy organizations. The second is to jump to the conclusion that nuclear weapons are the only solution that can balance Israel’s power. The third is to change direction, and to try to reach a settlement with the West.”
According to reports, the Iranians have already responded negatively, or at least with significant reservations, to an American offer to return to negotiations. Rogers warned of a gap between the parties’ timelines: “The Americans are trying to apply economic pressure – sanctions and isolation. This is a process that takes years to have a significant impact. But according to the Nuclear Energy Agency, Iran has enough fissile material to reach such a weapon within weeks. This is a very problematic asymmetry.”
This situation shapes Israel’s understanding, he explained. “If there is no diplomatic way, the only solution is military action.”
Do you think Israel can, technically, destroy the Iranian nuclear project?
“It’s a very difficult task to do alone. There are three main challenges. First, the Iranian program is geographically dispersed. It’s not one site, but many sites, far apart from one another. Secondly, a large part of the facilities are buried deep underground, heavily fortified, requiring very advanced munitions. Thirdly, it involves large quantities of ammunition that need to be launched simultaneously.”
According to him, the US military is indeed built for this. “We have heavy bombers capable of carrying dozens of bunker-buster missiles. This is precisely the mission for which the US military was built. I’m not saying with certainty that Israel is incapable of doing it, but it wasn’t the main pattern of operation around which its military was built.”
The US led the global order after World War II, but in recent years, many are asking if the superpower is disengaging from the world. Under President Donald Trump, is it adopting an isolationist policy? Rogers doesn’t think so. “I don’t see an administration that’s saying, ‘We want to stop being involved.’ I do hear something else in Washington: ‘We cannot bear the entire burden alone. The whole world, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, needs to take more responsibility. We will not forever be the first and only address.’”
According to Rogers, there is a much more sensitive point, and that is fatigue from endless wars. “History shows that it is difficult for democracies to sustain a prolonged conflict. Not because they’re weak, but because the democratic public begins asking, ‘Why? Till when? What’s the goal?’ This happened to us in Afghanistan, it happened in Iraq. Initially, there was broad consensus, but as the years passed and the cost rose, public support eroded.”
Rogers emphasized that the central question that hovers over any military action in a democracy is simple: How does it end? “When leaders do not provide a clear answer, support erodes. We saw this in the US, but I identify the same dynamic in Israel as well. The public asks, ‘What’s the goal? What’s the plan? Where is all this heading?’”
Does all this lead to dangerous isolationism?
“No. But it certainly requires the West, and Israel, to be much clearer, both internally and externally, about goals, horizon, and how to build stability. Without it, a democratic society simply cannot last for long.”
Russia’s strategy against the West
One of Rogers’s main insights relates to a silent but particularly dangerous area: cyberwarfare, disinformation, and influencing public opinion, in which Russia is a major player.
“Russia is not always trying to achieve a clear victory – sometimes all it wants is to create internal chaos, to cause free societies to fight among themselves. This is what it did in the US elections, and this is what it is doing in Europe. It supports both the Left and the Right, creates fake profiles, spreads fake news – anything that undermines citizens’ trust in their systems.”
According to him, the concept is simple: “The more internal conflicts there are, the harder it is for the West to respond externally. The energy goes into internal debates, not strategic challenges. The strategy is clear – to weaken democracies from within.”
What about Russia’s cyber capabilities themselves?
“They’re strong, but it’s interesting to see that, in the war in Ukraine, the Russians didn’t use everything they have. That’s not because they don’t have the capability, but because they’re probably afraid that the use of destructive cyber power will lead to a severe response from the West. This is a ‘gray zone strategy’: do things, but not too much; do harm, but don’t cross redlines. They are very good at this.”
Rogers also praised Ukraine itself: “They’ve been surprising in their cyber resilience. Even when there are hacks, they recover very quickly. Sometimes they even prevent damage proactively. This shows how a relatively weak country in technology can learn and adapt under pressure.”
What about the global perception of this conflict?
“It’s interesting to see how much the global perception of reality differs from region to region. In the West, the US and Western Europe view Russia as a cruel aggressor that unjustly invaded a sovereign country. But when I visit Africa or East Asia, I hear a different narrative: Russia only tried to defend itself against NATO expansion.”
Nevertheless, he concluded, Russia’s failure has exposed the limits of its power. “It is indeed a nuclear power, with a huge army, but it’s struggling to defeat a country much smaller than itself, which is also not a member of NATO. This changes the way they are perceived in the world and reduces the scope of their threat in the near future.”
“Israel is not merely surviving”
When we started talking about Israeli hi-tech, something in Rogers’s eyes changed. He smiled, cheered up, and suddenly spoke with almost fatherly simplicity about entrepreneurs, ideas, and a small country that provides the world with the most advanced solutions, even when it is under fire itself.
“My connection to Israel began back in 1980,” he said. “Since then, I haven’t stopped coming, both for professional and personal reasons. I have good friends here, and I feel very connected to what happens here.”
Rogers, as mentioned, is an operating partner at Team8, which was founded in 2014 by 8200 alumni Nadav Zafrir (formerly the Unit 8200 commander and currently CEO of Check Point), Israel Grimberg (formerly the head of Unit 8200’s Cyber Division), and Liran Grinberg. The fund, which holds an impressive portfolio of nearly 50 companies, has a unique model of building companies coupled with a traditional VC investment model, and operates in the fields of cyber, AI, data, fintech, and digital health.
“Our vision is simple,” he said. “Identify the most difficult problems in cyber, data, and AI, and build companies around them that bring real solutions. We’re not just investors, we are partners in creation. We identify a fundamental problem, and then we recruit the right people for the solution, provide infrastructure, professional backing, global connections, and build a company from the ground up.”
The group manages assets worth $1.2 billion, and has recorded 10 exits, four of which took place during a year of war, with a total value of $1.5b.
According to Rogers, the component that is perhaps most important is the local culture. “I don’t know of any other place in the world where so many young people are discharged from the army and immediately want to found a start-up. When I was head of NSA, I would ask my staff, ‘What are you going to do after your service?’ Most would answer that they would stay in the system. In Israel, almost everyone answers, ‘I’m going to build something of my own. It’s not just entrepreneurship – it’s a way of life.
“I believe in the power of this place. The situation here is complex, painful, difficult. But from this come solutions, technologies, ideas that make the world safer, more efficient, more just. And that, for me, is the future.”
He paused for a moment, then added: “Israel is not merely surviving the war, it is building its future at the same time. And that is inspiring.”
One of the questions that’s come up frequently since the proposed judicial reform is whether Israel will experience a brain drain. Rogers is familiar with the concern, but believes it is not actually materializing.
“Yes, I heard this immediately after October 7 and even before. People asked, ‘Will investors withdraw funding? Will entrepreneurs flee abroad?’ But in practice, it hasn’t happened. Not only did it not happen, but the opposite. Start-ups continue to raise funds, international companies seek collaborations, and Israeli entrepreneurs stay here despite everything. It’s amazing.
“There is an assumption in the West that innovation is only possible in conditions of stability, peace, and tranquility. But what I see here refutes that. Here, global solutions are built from within shelters, during air raids. And this only enhances the respect and trust that Israel receives in the international industry.” (Globes/TNS)