In an interview on the Triangle Investor uploaded by the YouTube channel Triangle Investor, veteran financial expert Alasdair Macleod delivered a sobering outlook on the global economy. Macleod, Head of Research for GoldMoney and a figure with over four decades of experience in the intricate world of finance, painted a picture of an impending economic crisis fueled by a massive credit bubble, geopolitical instability, and a growing distrust in the U.S. dollar.
Macleod, who began his distinguished career in 1970, didn't mince words, asserting that the current financial landscape is teetering on the brink. "What people don't understand, Lucien," he stated early in the interview, "is that we're in a credit bubble... and if you don't understand that we're in a credit bubble, you will understand, I am sure, that we're in a debt bubble. And credit is just the other side of debt." This foundational argument sets the stage for his analysis of the interconnected threats facing the global financial system.
Macleod elaborated on the dangers of this credit bubble, explaining how the artificial expansion of credit has inflated asset prices, particularly in the stock market. He noted the recent decline in margin debt as a potential trigger for a market downturn, where forced selling to cover debts could create a cascading effect.
Adding to the precarious situation, Macleod sharply criticized recent tariff policies, echoing concerns about their detrimental impact on international trade and the fueling of inflation. "What you're doing is you're destroying supply chains. You are driving up the prices to the consumer of imported goods and guess what that does that do to inflation?" he questioned, highlighting the dilemma facing central banks as they grapple with rising prices.
A significant portion of the interview focused on the role of precious metals, particularly gold and silver, in the current economic climate. Macleod underscored the strategic accumulation of gold by central banks, primarily in Asia, viewing it not as opportunistic but as a calculated move away from the perceived instability of the U.S. dollar. "They're buying gold because they're selling dollars. They're selling dollars because they don't trust them anymore," he asserted.
When asked for his key advice to the average person, Macleod's response was unequivocal and direct: "First, get out of credit. Second, buy gold. What are the third, fourth, and fifth? Keep staying out of credit. Keep stacking gold. Keep getting out of credit. That's it." He drew a parallel to the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 and the subsequent economic devastation, emphasizing the vulnerability of a fiat currency system in the face of such pressures.