The majority of both haredi (ultra-Orthodox) and Modern Orthodox (MO) Jews in the US plan to vote for former president Donald Trump, according to research carried out by Nishma Research in partnership with UCLA, provided exclusively to The Jerusalem Post on Monday.
“Overall, American Orthodoxy clearly leans in Trump’s direction, while in other polls it can be seen that non-Orthodox Jews clearly lean towards [Democrat candidate Kamala] Harris,” said researcher Asher Suzin.
According to the data, the ultra-Orthodox groups leaned strongly towards voting for Trump over Harris.
Some 68% said they would definitely be voting for Trump, and 15% probably. Among the same ultra-Orthodox community, only 5% said they would definitely vote for Harris.
On the other hand, 36% of MO Americans said they would definitely vote for Harris, over 27% for Trump.Combined, 77% of Orthodox Jews said they intended to vote for Trump.
Interestingly, the researchers noted that the vote predictions were identical to what they would have been with a Trump-Biden election.
Among MO Jews, younger women (under 50) showed the strongest support for Harris.
In terms of the influence of education levels on voting intention, those with less secular education (more in the ultra-Orthodox community) were more supportive of Trump, while those with post-BA levels of education were more supportive of Harris.
“It can be clearly seen that the level of modernity of American Orthodoxy directly influences the intention to vote for Democrats or Republicans,” Suzin added.
Regarding which issues are more important to their vote, Israel and antisemitism were the biggest drivers in both the Modern and ultra-Orthodox respondents.
Some 75% of MO respondents said Israel was a key issue in deciding their vote, and 63% said antisemitism.In the haredi community, 68% said Israel and 67% antisemitism.
After that, key drivers were the economy, healthcare, crime, and the state of democracy.
To note, among those who checked “Israel” as one of their four most important issues, 47% of MO and 46% of haredi said it is “the single most important issue in their decision on whom to vote for.”
Jewish issues and the local vote
On a more microcosmic scale, researchers also explored the differences in the two groups’ relationship to local or state voting.
They reported that the ultra-Orthodox were more “tuned in” to local election issues than the MO, with the former reporting more concern with every issue on the list than the latter.
For example, when asked how important “issues relating to the Jewish community” were to the local voting choices, 89% of ultra-Orthodox respondents said it was (as opposed to 76% of MO).
Similarly, 69% of haredim said the candidates’ ability to provide for the Jewish community was important to their vote, as opposed to 41% of MO.
Views on Israel and Zionism
The researchers also explored both communities’ connection to Israel, finding that both groups expressed strong ties.
Some 85% of MO reported feeling emotionally connected to Israel, and 13% somewhat connected, totaling a 98% connection.
Among haredim, 72% felt strongly connected to Israel, and 16% somewhat, meaning a total of 88% felt connected.The majority of participants in both groups also said their connection to Israel had strengthened in recent months.However, the two groups differed slightly over their views on Zionism.
The majority of MO respondents reported being Zionist (94%), whereas only 47% of haredim reported being Zionist.While only 1% of MO respondents said they were “strongly anti-Zionist,” 17% of haredim said they were.Perhaps even more striking was that both groups reported an increased approval of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s job performance since February.
Some 40% of MO approved of Netanyahu’s job performance, up from a 25% approval rate in February, and 63% of haredim approved, up from 49% in February.
The survey was conducted on a total of 1296 ultra-Orthodox and modern Orthodox Americans, to ascertain their voting positions ahead of the upcoming US elections. The MO sector constitutes a third of the US Orthodox population, and the ultra-Orthodox, two-thirds.
The gender split of respondents was 55% male to 44% female among MO, and 66% male to 33% female among ultra-Orthodox.
The average respondent age for MO was 54, and for haredi, 42.