Should Isaac Herzog become prime minister...

Recent Israeli polls point to elections’ victory by the Zionist Camp party over the Likud party. The Israeli public would like to see a leadership change. They want to see an end to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, believing that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu presents a hindrance to the two-state solution, while Isaac Herzog and the Israeli Left will bring it about.

There are several logical arguments refuting that wishful, but unfounded, assessment.

On the Israeli side no leftist government will ever be able to successfully negotiate a peaceful, two-state solution with the Palestinians. A negotiated peace between the two sides will require indispensable compromises, including some possible land swaps, dismantling of certain Israeli settlements, troop-withdrawal from a number of grounds, parting from areas considered sacred to Jews due to their historical significance.

Any concession by a leftist government involving any of the elements above will undoubtedly yield a violent revolt, a possible civil-war led by the Israeli Right. The country is divided in the middle between left and right. A leftist government could not ignore half of its population by imposing its agenda on such an existential question. The only leadership, potentially capable of making concessions to the Palestinians in the name of peace, is a right-wing government. Once a rightist government embarks on a peace journey, it will be blessed by the left and will not be resisted by most of its own benefactors. It will be supported by a notable majority; it will be empowered.

History serves as proof to that logical supposition. It was Menachem Begin, the right wing leader, who signed the peace treaty with Egypt giving up the Sinai and dismantling Jewish settlements in the process. It was Ariel Sharon who withdrew from Gaza while uprooting Jewish settlers from their homes and villages. It was Richard Nixon, the archenemy of Communism, who opened the gates on the road to China. No leftist leader would have been able to accomplish these paradigm shifts. Tough concessions, paving the road to peace, can only be made by leaders representing the ones who feel the great pain involved.

Should Isaac Herzog become prime minister he will be faced with the sad reality that when it comes to peace with the Palestinians his hands are tied by the prospects of a civil war. Israelis are dreaming if they believe that a leftist government will bring the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to a peaceful end. Those voting for a leftist party because they wish for a two-state solution are up for a reality check and a great disappointment.

And then, there is the Palestinian side.

We witnessed the violent eruptions by the Palestinians following Ehud Barak’s monumental concessions when attempting to forge a peaceful settlement with Yasser Arafat. These concessions, including an agreement to divide Jerusalem, were inadequate in the eyes of the Palestinian leader. I find it inconceivable imagining that any Israeli leader will ever surpass Barak’s generosity. And offering less will never be accepted by the other side. Herzog has already indicated that under his peace effort Jerusalem will stay united. As far as the Palestinians are concerned, that approach is a non-starter.

Many on the Israeli left are making one fundamental error by assuming that the conflict between Israeli Jews and the Palestinian Arabs is about the Occupation resulting from the six-day-war in 1967. It is not!

The conflict is about the war in 1948; it’s about Israel’s existence; it’s about the ensued Palestinian refugees and their descendants. Jews longed for their ancient homeland for 2000 years. They never forgot. It has been less than 67 years since “the Nakba”. The Palestinian Arabs have not even started to put it behind them. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is simply insoluble. It’s not about the occupation of the West Bank; it’s about Israel’s existence; it’s a zero-sum game in the eyes of the Palestinians. Anyone who believes differently sticks their head in the sand; refuses to study and listen to the Palestinian leaders’ announcements, to their children’s songs and TV programs, to their history books. These believers let wishful thinking overrun reason.

It is sad, but the Israeli public is up for a great disappointment following a potential election victory by the left. Empowered by the electors, Herzog and his leftist bloc will not be able bring change to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The illusion of peace with the Palestinians will remain an illusion. Hope and make-believe will be shattered in the face of reality.

The Israeli public quest for a positive change concerning the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will not cease regardless of whoever wins the upcoming elections. Americans and Israelis will move on to the next chapter, one that looks and feels so similar to the previous one. The only post-election transformation may be the face and style of Israel’s next leader. Divergent substance may be confined to internal affairs.

The writer is currently a talk show host at Paltalk News Network (PNN). He served as an intelligence expert for the Israeli government and was a professor at Northwestern University. He is the author of Fundamentals of Voice Quality Engineering in Wireless Networks, and more recently, 72 Virgins. For further information you may visit www.aviperry.org