German military intelligence findings have led European officials to believe that Russia is preparing for a major war with NATO and European nations, according to findings from a joint investigation from German news outlets, published Thursday.
According to the report, Russia sees itself having a larger conflict with the West. The report claims that Putin is planning the "use of military force to achieve its imperialist goals,” specifying that the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine was merely a first step in movements against the whole of Europe.
By the end of the decade, Russia will have laid the groundwork to establish a “large-scale conventional war,” according to a joint investigation by Germany’s Süddeutsche Zeitung, WDR, and NDR.
Russia’s Baltic neighbors are not entirely confident in the country's current capabilities to wage war against NATO. The Lithuanian Special Service (VSD) does, however, believe that Russia is certainly capable of carrying out limited military action against one or more NATO countries.
Is this Putin testing how far he can go in the name of Russia?
Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) alleges that Putin is planning to test how seriously NATO countries will take their obligation to provide assistance as required under Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, specifically in emergency situations, German news outlet Bild reported.
German media has noted that three-quarters of Russian soldiers and personnel typically on borders with Baltic states are in Ukraine, and their Air Force and Naval units are “on full combat alert.” Should the war in Ukraine end, they would return to their posts.
Putin and the Russian army continue to evade the sanctions placed on the country by Western nations and are arming themselves, with their military production greatly surpassing Russia’s current needs for the war in Ukraine.
Russia plans to increase the size of its armed forces by 2026, expecting 1.5 million soldiers. Based on plans for the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the size of the Russian Armed Forces would be increased by 30 to 50%. BND also noted that the Kremlin’s military spending has rapidly increased.
In 2025, it amounts to €120 billion, more than 6% of the country’s GDP - and nearly four times the country’s military budget four years earlier in 2021.
Last week, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte swore NATO would deliver a crushing blow in response to Putin should they attack Poland or any other country in the alliance. He also stated that when the Russia- Ukraine War ends, there will be no normalization of ties with Russia.