Even though Iraq is having elections almost seven months from now, chaos is already unfolding in the discussion about the lists ahead of the vote.
Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani is “aiming for a second term in office,” an adviser to the PM confirmed to Rudaw, a Kurdish media outlet.
Sudani is expected to lead a “large list in the elections” and could be “one of the major competitors who secures the most votes,” the report said.
However, the UAE’s Al-Ain media has reported that chaos is happening beneath the surface. The context for this is that Iran-backed militias in Iraq are facing a crossroads. Voices are calling to disarm the militias, which are linked to political parties in Iraq and are part of the paramilitary Popular Mobilization Forces.
Al-Ain noted that “the strategic defeat of a regional alliance of armed factions under Iranian auspices appears to have had repercussions on the nature of electoral alliances in Iraq.”
The ruling Shi’ite Coordination Framework in Iraq is having major disagreements among its leaders. A meeting was held in the office of the Badr Organization with leader Hadi al-Amiri for the second consecutive night. Badr is an Iranian-backed group that has been influential in Iraq since the 1980s. Amiri is both a politician who is powerful within Iraq’s Interior Ministry and a key to Badr’s role in the PMF.
According to sources that spoke to Al-Ain, “The leadership of the Coordination Framework decided to split into six main lists.” The report notes that “the forces affiliated with the Iran-led coalition in the region faced strategic defeat in Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine; the risk of a US confrontation in Iraq and Yemen, with the latter taking a military form; and political pressure in Baghdad.”
The lists now include the following:
• The Decision Alliance, backing the government, includes the forces supporting current Prime Minister Sudani, and is considered the closest to the official establishment. It includes the Euphrates Movement, headed by Sudani; the Badr Organization, headed by Hadi al-Amiri; the Ataa Movement, headed by Faleh al-Fayyadh, head of the Popular Mobilization Authority; the Ansar Allah al-Awfiya Group armed militias, led by Haider al-Gharawi; the Rights Movement – led by MP Hussein Mounes, a leader in the Kata’ib Hezbollah militia in Iraq; and the Sanad Alliance – led by Ahmed al-Asadi, the current labor and social affairs minister.
• The Moderation and Review list, which includes the Hikma Movement, led by Ammar al-Hakim; and the Victory Alliance, led by former prime minister Haider al-Abadi. It is seen as “relying on audiences in major cities and middle-class elites, and proposes a reformist discourse that is distinct from that of the ‘Iranian axis,’ despite its closeness to Sudani’s orientations.”
• The State of Law Coalition, led by former Iraqi leader Nouri al-Maliki; as well as the Sayyid al-Shuhada Brigade of militias led by Abu Alaa al-Wala’i; and the Imam Ali Brigade of armed militias, led by Shabl al-Zaidi. This is a sectarian armed list.
• Asaib Ahl al-Haq (Movement of the People of the Righteous), also known as the Khazali Network, led by militia leader Qais Khazali, who has been sanctioned by the US.
• Cleric Humam Hamoudi, head of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, has also decided to run independently as head of Absher Ya Iraq.
• The Basic Alliance, headed by First Deputy Speaker of Parliament Mohsen al-Mandalawi.
All of these challengers could weaken the Iranian-backed parties in Iraq.
What does this split mean?
“According to Al-Ain News sources, the split does not signify political divergence, but rather is part of an electoral tactic that allows each party to play within its own social and political territory. Efforts will then be coordinated to form the largest parliamentary bloc, and possibly return to a unified alliance after the results are announced,” the UAE media outlet noted.
One expert told Al-Ain that “so far, no clear conditions or formal agreements have been put forward within the framework regarding the shape of the next coalition, but it is clear that there are divergent visions – while others believe that the electoral separation allows them greater room for maneuver and an opportunity to demonstrate their political presence independently.”