Columbia University Professors Awi Federgruen and Ran Kivetz have analyzed available data and conducted research whose “findings demonstrate that sufficient amounts of food are being supplied into Gaza,” they noted in a summary of their findings presented to The Jerusalem Post.

They note that it is “a myth that Israel is responsible for famine in Gaza.” They argue that the International Criminal Court and UN have joined Hamas in blaming Israel for a “famine that never was, hoping to stop the war [in Gaza].” 

The two professors spoke to the Post in early June and they provided an abstract and details about their findings regarding the issue of famine in Gaza.

Professor Awi Federgruen is the Chair of Columbia University Business School’s Decision, Risk and Operations Division. He is an expert in supply chains, logistics, and data science. Ran Kivetz is the Philip H. Geier Professor at Columbia University Business School. He is an expert in decision making, including the intersection between behavioral economics and political science.

The two experts noted that the ICC has sought arrest warrants for senior Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. The ICC claimed that Israel is “causing starvation as a method of war including the denial of humanitarian relief supplies [and] deliberately targeting civilians in conflict,” they note in their abstract. The two professors dispute this.

An Israeli soldier stands guard as a truck carrying humanitarian aid makes its way to the Gaza Strip at Erez Crossing in southern Israel, May 5, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/AMIR COHEN)
An Israeli soldier stands guard as a truck carrying humanitarian aid makes its way to the Gaza Strip at Erez Crossing in southern Israel, May 5, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/AMIR COHEN)
They examined the “hard data, available from such sources as COGAT and the UN,” they note. Federgruen and Kivetz’s research and findingsdemonstrate that sufficient amounts of food are being supplied into Gaza. According to their research they “demonstrate that 250 truckloads suffice to feed the entire Gazan population, in accordance with a normal diet in North America.”

Hamas fired rockets at the Kerem Shalom crossing on May 5, killing five soldiers and causing the border to be shut briefly. However the supplies have resumed since then. “Israel intends to increase it further to the 400-500 truck/day level. Further, Israel regularly halts offensives for 4 hours a day to facilitate these deliveries,” they note.

“Nevertheless, food is not consistently distributed inside Gaza,” they add. The Professors point to reports that suggest the fact food is not distributed inside Gaza is due to sabotage and theft by Hamas.

They argue that “the ICC, the UN, and the international community should put blame only where it belongs: on Hamas, which started the war by slaughtering more than 1,000 Israeli and foreign civilians and by taking more than 200 hostages still not released and many murdered in captivity.  But, unfortunately, the UN, the ICC, and even some Western governments consistently ignore the data.”

The experts also argue that mainstream media organizations have distorted information from Gaza, and this has led to Israel being framed as the cause of the purported famine.

“In fact, the mainstream media keep vacillating between (false) allegations that Israel is causing famine, is perpetrating genocide, and is sabotaging hostage deals with Hamas. Such a defamatory narrative is intended to end the Israel-Hamas war at all costs, including a Hamas victory, a bleak future for Gazans and Israel, and an endless cruel captivity for the hostages and their families.  The false famine narrative has also been exploited by the ICC, ICJ, and UN to support their unjustified rulings and actions against Israel,” they assert. 

Federgruen and Kivetz also note that some of the claims relating to famine in Gaza can be traced back to problematic reports.

For instance “in March 2024 an organization called the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), an arm of the UN, issued a report predicting the advent of a major famine in Gaza that is supposedly provoked by Israel.  That IPC report took on a life of its own.  For example, it was cited by OXFAM, which accused Israel of ‘making deliberate choices to starve civilians’ and claimed (without any substantiation) that a group of North Gazans were subsisting on as little as 245 calories per day,” they note.

The experts say they followed the data closely since the beginning of the war. “We do that professionally.  We don’t rely on stories.  The hard data on food supplies are not difficult to obtain.  Our analysis is based on data from COGAT, as well as reports and data from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) report.  

These data display a totally different picture from what the ICC and UN are trying to paint, and directly refute the baseless claims that Israel is causing a famine or using starvation as a method of war.” COGAT is the IDF coordination unit that is responsible for dealing with aid entering Gaza. It also publishes information on the amount of aid entering.  

Aid that enters Gaza enters through Israel, especially after Egypt closed the Rafah crossing on May 8. “The first part of that food supply chain is in Israel’s hands because Israel is the major force that controls what comes into Gaza.  Once the food enters Gaza, however, the supply chain is no longer under Israel’s control, as the food is taken over by NGOs, the UN, and interventions by Hamas,” the academics note.

“We found that the food supply entering Gaza is more than sufficient to feed all 2.2 million Gazans according to what is considered a normal diet in North America.  This is because if just 250 truckloads enter Gaza every day (more actually enter), and assuming the food is adequately distributed, every Gazan would receive the amount of food that the average individual consumes in North America.  This is in addition to the food that Gazans continue to produce themselves.”

They note that their calculation is based on each truckload carrying 20 tons of food. This means that 250 truckloads provide five million kilograms, about 2.25 kilograms per person in Gaza. “This is almost identical to the 2.36 kg of food per day that the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization estimates the average individual consumes in North America.”

The professors note that “our findings have been recently independently corroborated by a working paper written by researchers from Tel Aviv University, Hebrew University, University of Haifa, Ben Gurion University, Shaare Zedek, and The Israeli Ministry of Health.  The conclusion of that paper is that every Gazan was provided 3,374 Kcal a day, while only 2,100 Kcal is needed.” 

While enough aid is entering Gaza, they note that it may not always be distributed to people due to other factors, such as war and Hamas control. “We can say with a high degree of professional confidence that if there was a famine somewhere in Gaza, it was not instigated by Israel. To the contrary, Israel is engaged in a variety of efforts to ensure that sufficient food enters Gaza through land crossings,” they state.

The examination of the data by the professors joins a growing body of evidence pushing back on the claims of famine in Gaza. However, the chaos of the war in Gaza and other factors mean that Israel will continue to be blamed for what is occurring in Gaza, even if Israel is not to blame for the failed distribution of food.

Hamas not only appears to hijack aid trucks but it also benefits from claims of famine because Hamas can then try to leverage these claims to pressure Israel to stop the fighting.