Just minutes after Ronald Regan was sworn in as the 40th president of the United States on January 20th, 1981, and as he delivered his inaugural address, an Air Algerie Boeing 727-200 commercial airliner took off from Tehran with 53 US citizens on board.
The Americans had been held hostage at the US embassy in Tehran for 444 days, captured by Iranian student revolutionaries, and paraded by the Iranians as a symbol of their new anti-Western, Islamist country under Ayatollah Khomeini. The timing of their release was not coincidental.
As a final farewell gift for the departing US president Jimmy Carter, the Iranians deliberately waited until just after Reagan’s inauguration to release the hostages.
It was a parting “flipping the bird” for the Carter, who had worked desperately to secure the hostages’ freedom. His attempts included a failed helicopter rescue mission, which ended with the deaths of 8 American servicemen. January 20, 1981, was the final humiliation for good-willed but weak Carter, who had lost his greatest ally in the region - the Shah of Iran.
If the Iranians deliberately waited until after Jimmy Carter was out of office to release the hostages, is there something to be said for the timing of the Hamas deal with Israel and the beginning of the release of Israeli hostages on Sunday?
Is Hamas scared of Trump?
With President-elect Donald Trump set to be inaugurated in Washington DC on Monday, did Hamas feel it imperative to strike a hostage deal on President Joe Biden’s watch before Trump returns to power?
Trump has had plenty to say since his re-election in November. He has made statements putting out his message to Hamas very clearly: If there is no deal by January 20, there will be “hell to pay,” and “all hell will break loose.”
Over the weekend, Trump told NBC News that he had encouraged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regarding the hostage deal: “Just keep doing what you have to do. You have to - this has to end. We want it to end, but keep doing what has to be done.”
When asked how confident he was that the hostages would be released, Trump said, “Well, we’re going to see very soon, and it better hold.”
The inaugural Israeli hostages, Emily Damari, Romi Gonen, and Doron Steinbrecher, were indeed released on Sunday after 471 days in Hamas captivity - even longer than the Americans were held hostage by the Iranians. That is three out of 98.Throughout this period, Hamas has maintained its position that any hostage release deal must include a complete cessation of Israeli military actions in Gaza. A Hamas official described Trump's remarks as rash, emphasizing the need for more disciplined and diplomatic statements. Hamas consistently called for an end to US military support for Israel, something only likely to grow stronger under Trump than Biden, and advocated for the recognition of Palestinian rights, including the establishment of an independent state with Jerusalem as its capital.
But surely Hamas are aware of who they are dealing with? This is the president who helped to bring about the signing of several peace treaties at once between Israel and its Arab neighbors—a president who recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and moved his country’s embassy there.
Reports do suggest that Hamas is concerned Trump may permit Israel to resume military operations in Gaza after the initial phase of the hostage-release agreement, stemming from the belief that the incoming administration will adopt a more aggressive stance.
Hamas will have been convinced - better to do a deal while Biden’s administration is still in charge than risk no deal when Trump takes office.
Hamas has tried to play the PR game. While crying “genocide” against Israel, they and their supporters were quick to claim victory over the weekend against Israel in the 15-month-long war. Even on Sunday, Hamas spokesperson Abu Obeida called on Palestinians in the West Bank to escalate the fighting against Israel and lauded regional supporters such as Iran and the Houthis in Yemen.
But deep inside, the leaders of Hamas must know that the tide will turn on January 20, the same date as Reagan’s inauguration. Trump, so long a close friend of Netanyahu and Israel, will not allow the deal to collapse or more delays to the release of hostages.
When Carter left office, his final day was one of utter humiliation. Trump has never been one to be so thin-skinned. Hamas should be aware that from Monday, Israel will be more confident than ever that it will have the backing of the US to do what it must to return all the hostages, alive and dead, and defeat Hamas.
If Hamas were not already aware, all hell may well break loose.