Israel must set conditions for an eventual withdrawal from its buffer zone in Syria, and if it stays longer than six months, the situation could start to backfire, according to Carmit Valensi, the Northern Arena program head for the Institute for National Security Studies and a former IDF intelligence officer.
In an interview with The Jerusalem Post, she made recommendations for Israel’s Syria policy.
Late Monday night, the European Union announced a road map for lifting its sanctions against Syria to encourage the new regime, run by Abu Mohammed al-Julani of Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), to move in a more democratic direction focused on Western values.
The EU’s announcement is the furthest the West has come toward normalizing relations with Julani, who overthrew Syrian president Bashar al-Assad on December 7-8, and following the US, making initial limited inroads toward lifting some sanctions as well.
As the West gets closer to Julani – who says his regime will respect the armistice between Israel and Syria from 1974, while also wanting Israel to withdraw from Syrian territory – pressure on the Jewish state to withdraw may grow exponentially.
Given Julani’s past connections to al-Qaeda, IDF Division 210 entered Syria in the days after the Assad regime fell, establishing a buffer zone all along the Israel-Syrian border, including taking over the Syrian side of Mount Hermon and digging meters-deep defensive trenches along the border.
On Tuesday, the IDF even announced enhanced temporary facilities on the Syrian side of the Hermon to better keep soldiers warm during the intense winter conditions.
Also on Tuesday, Defense Minister Israel Katz advocated keeping the buffer zone for an indefinite period.
In a recent INSS publication, Valensi said: “The uncertainty surrounding the intentions of al-Sharaa [another name for Julani] specifically, and the future of Syria in general, alongside the evolving reality, may present new challenges but also create opportunities for Israel.
Long term benefits
“To achieve long-term strategic and security benefits, Israel should aim to stabilize Syria under a moderate, stable, and effective regime that is open to political engagement, curtails Iranian influence, and eliminates threats from terrorist elements against Israel,” she wrote.
Therefore, Valensi said, Israel should “develop a new border defense plan, including addressing the question of a buffer zone and the role of the UN force (UNDOF).”
More specifically, she said, arrangements with UNDOF, given the UN’s weak peacekeeping record in the Middle East, would be insufficient and would need to be enhanced by additional arrangements with the new Syrian regime and likely also with Turkey, given its influence over the new regime.
In some scenarios, Druze villages on the Israeli-Syrian border could also have a security role given that many of them have positive relations with Israel, Valensi said.
Furthermore, she said, Jerusalem should “explore preliminary communication channels with the new administration in Syria to safeguard Israel’s political and security interests in the Golan Heights and deeper within Syria.”
Israel was in contact with various rebel groups during the Syrian civil war, including providing some rebels with medical care in Israeli territory.
IDF sources said they already had contacts with HTS-affiliated officials on smaller issues, the Post reported on December 11.
After Syrian rebels attacked a UN site and stole some UN items, for example, IDF officers were able to relay messages to senior HTS-affiliated officials, leading to the stolen items being returned within a relatively short time.
The Post understands that various contacts that cannot be publicized due to their sensitivity are ongoing.
Next, Valensi wrote that Israel should “clarify through diplomatic channels to regional forces and local actors that Israel’s presence in Syria is temporary, pending the resolution of issues that ensure its security interests. This includes outlining the conditions for an Israeli withdrawal.”
Regarding these conditions, the sides would need to agree to a set period of time of quiet and stability on the border, as well as the new regime ensuring no one from Syria tries to infiltrate into Israel, she told the Post.
Another condition could be the regime proving that it is thwarting Hezbollah from smuggling weapons through Syria into Lebanon, a major strategic issue under the Assad regime, she added.
Earlier this week, the new regime announced for the second time in January that it had blocked Hezbollah weapons smuggling through its territory.
Other conditions might include ensuring certain more radical jihadist actors connected to HTS do not approach the southern Syria border near Israel, Valensi said, and a general process in which the rights of minorities in Syria are being respected.
Moreover, she recommended establishing “connections with positive elements within Syria and consider providing targeted yet symbolic humanitarian aid.”
In addition, Valensi advocated “formulating understandings with Turkey, which will play a central role in Syria, to avoid framing Turkey – a NATO member – as an adversary. Simultaneously, strengthen dialogue with Jordan and the Gulf States to guide Syria’s reconstruction in a positive direction.”
She also said Israel should “initiate the establishment of an international quadrilateral committee comprising Israel, Turkey, the United States, and Russia. The goal would be to stabilize the new Syrian regime and protect minorities in Syria.”
Finally, Valensi wrote: “Israel must combine security determination with thoughtful diplomatic measures. This is a golden opportunity for Israel to play a constructive role in stabilizing the new Syria, enhance its regional and international standing, and improve its national security on the Syrian front for many years to come.”