Hamas will hold on to its bargaining chip - the hostages - until it receives the concessions it requests, Eyal Ofer, an expert on Hamas’s economy said on Sunday.
According to Ofer, Hamas is closely monitoring international negotiations and adapting its approach accordingly.
"Assuming that Hamas operates rationally and sees that negotiations of global significance and long-term agreements are taking place between the US and Iran, as well as between the US and Russia, they will hold on to their only bargaining chip—the hostages—until there are concessions that are significant for them, potentially from Trump, as part of these global agreements," he noted.
Ofer does not expect a large-scale release of hostages at this stage.
"I don’t see them agreeing to release half the hostages at this point. Maybe they will trickle out one to four live hostages in exchange for a few months of extension."
He warned that only a military shift could alter the situation.
"The only thing that could likely change this picture is an Israeli military operation that shifts the balance for them."
Ofer also criticized Israel’s approach to the prolonged negotiations, arguing that it has failed to apply sufficient pressure on Hamas.
'Failing to create alternative threats'
"Israel is failing to create alternative threats or make it clear to Hamas that dragging out the negotiations comes at a cost. For example, as I have suggested before, marking a future border for Gaza and shifting it 50 meters south every week."
Summarizing the available options, Ofer sees two likely scenarios.
"Therefore, we are either heading toward a two-month delay in exchange for a very small number of hostages or a military operation."