Six hundred days into the war that erupted on October 7, 2023, Israel has eliminated nearly all of Hamas’s senior leadership in Gaza, yet the group continues to wield strategic leverage through its extensive tunnel network and the captivity of 58 hostages.
Since the fighting began, the Israel Defense Forces have systematically targeted the military wing of Hamas. Commanders such as Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif, Marwan Issa, and Rafa Salama were killed in precision strikes, and Mohammed Sinwar, Yahya Sinwar’s brother, was killed in early May. By late May, only Ezz al-Din al-Haddad, commander of the Gaza City brigade, remained at large among senior operatives.
Outside the Gaza Strip, Hamas’s political leadership has also suffered heavy blows. Ismail Haniyeh was reportedly assassinated in Iran, and Saleh al-Arouri was killed in Lebanon in back-to-back operations that reverberated through the “axis of resistance.” In their absence, acting Gaza leader Khalil al-Hayya and former politburo chief Khaled Mashal have taken the helm of ceasefire negotiations.
Hamas still has strategic tunnels in Gaza
Despite these setbacks, Hamas retains what analysts describe as its sole remaining “strategic weapon” — a sprawling underground network beneath Gaza. Sources told Asharq al-Awsat that the tunnel system still comprises defensive passages, attack routes aimed at IDF positions, command-and-control corridors and holding cells for Israeli captives. Pre-war estimates placed the network at some 1,300 tunnels spanning 500 km, with depths of up to 70 meters. Although the IDF has launched operations across all sectors of the Strip, it has yet to destroy the entire labyrinth.
Meanwhile, Israel’s military campaign has largely neutralized Hamas’s long-range rocket arsenals and eliminated hundreds of operatives at every level. Hamas has recruited fresh fighters amid the fighting and, according to multiple reports, repurposes unexploded Israeli ordnance to manufacture rudimentary munitions.
On the diplomatic front, Hamas has shown its first signs of flexibility in hostage-swap talks. The group, which long demanded an absolute end to hostilities, offered a temporary 70-day ceasefire and even floated a conditional proposal to relinquish governance of Gaza if all Palestinian factions agreed to a unified political settlement. Reports from Lebanon’s Al-Mayadeen suggest Hamas is willing to accept restrictions on its weapons development so long as it retains its existing arsenal.
Hamas’s regional allies have likewise been weakened. Hezbollah in Lebanon has seen its influence curtailed by a new government and president demanding state control over arms. In Syria, Bashar al-Assad’s regime faces internal collapse, while in the West Bank, Jenin has become a more permissive arena for IDF operations. Iraqi militias—once a vocal threat—have held fire amid U.S. pressure. Only Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis remain actively engaged, launching missiles and disrupting Red Sea shipping.
On the ground in Gaza, growing reports of hunger and hardship have eroded public support for Hamas. In some districts the group still enforces order by force, but in others Palestinians openly call for an end to the fighting. Israel has responded by piloting a new direct humanitarian-aid distribution model designed to bypass Hamas’s traditional role as arbiter of relief.
Hamas, the organization behind the worst massacre of Jews since the Holocaust, has been grievously weakened, as has the broader “axis of evil” to which it belongs. Yet Israelis remain painfully aware that 58 fellow citizens are still held underground by Hamas—some for 600 days now. Until every hostage is returned, whether to rehabilitation or to burial, the nation’s heart will remain incomplete.