The crisis surrounding the haredi (ultra-Orthodox) exemption from military service has deepened in recent days, following the expiration of the ultimatum set by haredi factions for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to advance legislation to regulate the exemption by the Shavuot holiday.
Even before the holiday, United Torah Judaism chairman Minister Yitzhak Goldknopf threatened to push for early elections. After the holiday, Degel HaTorah rabbis and Shas chairman Arye Deri announced they would back a bill to dissolve the Knesset.
Seven weeks remain in the Knesset’s summer session. Amid the crisis, the opposition plans to place bills to dissolve the Knesset on the plenary agenda for next Wednesday. If the ultra-Orthodox threat materializes, these bills could pass their preliminary reading, setting the process in motion. That effectively gives Netanyahu one week to advance the legislation and try to defuse the ultra-Orthodox opposition.
Coalition sources say the chances of bridging the wide gap between the ultra-Orthodox factions’ demands for an exemption law and the demands from Likud and Religious Zionist MKs—led by Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee chairman Yuli Edelstein—are low.
Nonetheless, Netanyahu met with Edelstein on Wednesday evening. After the meeting, the Prime Minister’s Office released a statement saying, “There is a way to bridge the gaps.” Netanyahu is expected to hold another meeting Thursday with Edelstein and representatives of the ultra-Orthodox factions to address the issue and try to resolve the crisis.
One option reportedly being considered by Netanyahu’s circle is to dismiss Edelstein, whom the ultra-Orthodox factions view as the main obstacle, and appoint another chairman of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. At best, this would buy time. Removing Edelstein might speed up the drafting of the bill in a way that favors the ultra-Orthodox, but it would not solve the challenge of securing a coalition majority to pass the bill in the committee or plenary. Likud and Religious Zionist MKs face pressure from reservist organizations and serving soldiers to pass a more robust draft law.
It is worth recalling that last November, Netanyahu fired then-defense minister Yoav Gallant, partly at the request of the ultra-Orthodox factions, who believed Gallant was blocking the exemption law. However, replacing him with Israel Katz did not advance or resolve the crisis.
What lies ahead if Netanyahu fails to resolve issue
If Netanyahu fails to resolve the issue by Wednesday, the bill to dissolve the Knesset will come up for a preliminary vote next week. If all the ultra-Orthodox factions support it, the opposition would have a majority. But like any bill, it would need to pass three additional readings, a process that could take days or weeks, and Netanyahu ultimately controls the pace. The legislative agenda is set by Likud via Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana and Knesset House Committee chairman Ofir Katz, allowing Netanyahu to delay or accelerate the process.
If the bill passes all four readings by the end of the session, elections would be set for at least 90 days later, likely in late October.
However, Netanyahu’s associates say his goal is to stretch the seven weeks remaining in the summer session until the recess, giving the government nearly three more months of stability before the winter session begins at the end of October, only then dissolving the Knesset. That means that even if the bill to dissolve the Knesset passes its preliminary and first reading, Netanyahu could still strike a deal with the ultra-Orthodox factions, complete the legislation, and dissolve the Knesset at the start of the next session. In that scenario, elections would likely take place in early 2026.
Coalition sources believe the next session will likely be the government’s last, as the next budget must pass by March 2026. In an election year atmosphere, no one would want to approve a budget involving tax hikes and economic austerity. If the government fails to pass the budget on time, the Knesset would automatically dissolve, with elections taking place in the summer of 2026, months ahead of the scheduled date in October 2026.