The IDF's strike on Tuesday night to try to kill Hamas chief Mohammad Sinwar may have killed Hamas Rafah Brigade commander Muhammad Shabana, sources estimate.
So far, there is cautious optimism that both Hamas officials were killed in the attack, though it may take time to confirm.
If so, then Hamas's current leader and one of the few top until now living Hamas commanders who might have replaced him, would have been removed with one swift military stroke.
Already during the war, the IDF has killed October 7 architect Yahya Sinwar, former military chief Mohammad Deif, Deif's deputy Marwan Issa, Northern Gaza Brigade commander Ahmad Ran Dur, Central Gaza Brigade Commander Ayman Nofel, and Khan Yunis Brigade Commander Rafah Salame.
Also, Israel has killed Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh and his deputy, Salah al-Arouri.
This would leave only Gaza City Brigade commander Az-adin-al-Hadad alive from the pre-war original five Hamas brigade commanders, which defense sources suggest would make him Hamas's next military chief.
Shabanah has been the Rafah Brigade chief since the end of the 2014 Gaza conflict, when his predecessor, Raed al-Atar, was killed by the IDF.
Previous IDF strikes
In February 2024, there were reports that the IDF may have narrowly missed killing al-Hadad and prior to that there had been other failed attempts on his life.
In recent IDF military pushes in Rafah, the military succeeded in killing virtually all the remaining few hundred Hamas fighters from the originally 4,000 or more strong of the Rafah Brigade, but it seemed that Shabanah had escaped.
However, the IDF also recently, after 19 months, found one of the last remaining strategic tunnels connecting Rafah and Khan Yunis, and eliminated that, severely limiting the maneuverability of top commanders like Shabanah who might want to try to travel between sectors to maintain national command structures and coordination.
It is possible that these two new events flushed Sinwar and Shabanah out of their regular tunnel hideouts into the location under a high profile Gaza hospital where they may have been easier to locate.
There are also some reports that Hamas's spokesman, Abu Obeidah, may have also been killed in the same strike.
This would leave only Gaza City Brigade commander Az-adin-al-Hadad alive from the pre-war original five Hamas brigade commanders.