IDF: Successes in Iran, but no deadline to end ballistic missile threat
Iran could potentially keep Israel's home front under heavy fire for weeks or possibly months.
The IDF on Sunday afternoon said that it has had tremendous successes so far against Iran's nuclear and ballistic missiles programs, top commanders, and now economic targets, but has not progressed enough to give a clear prediction about when air force attacks might substantially deplete the Islamic Republic's counter strikes with ballistic missiles which have killed 10 Israelis and wounded over 250.
Some American and Israeli sources have told the Jerusalem Post that before the war, Iran had 3,000 ballistic missiles, but that only around 1,000 could reach Israel, and that they had only 150-250 launchers for these missiles.
However, Iran already fired around 300 ballistic missiles at Israel during its April 2024 and October 2024 attacks, another more than 200 on Friday-Saturday, and another mass salvo Saturday-Sunday, with Israeli officials still hinting they believe Tehran could fire potentially several hundred more at least.
Israel has struck a large number of ballistic missiles and their launchers, including a major underground site with dozens of ballistic missiles, but is either keeping a tight lid on Iran's exact potential number of ballistic missiles for attacking the Jewish state going forward, or does not know the real answer.
The IDF said that so far the harm to Israel's home front is less than they expected.
Last night, Iran fired three salvos of around 75 ballistic missiles total at 11:00 p.m., 2:00 a.m. and 2:55 a.m.
Until now, the IDF has hit around 170 targets in Iran since Friday with impact on 720 different sites or sub-targets.
Time frame for war with Iran
If Iran at some point starts firing only 50-100 missiles per day, and possibly at some points cuts that number to dozens per day, and had more than 1,000 at the start, they could potentially keep Israel's home front under heavy fire for weeks or possibly months.Still, the IDF said that it was critical for the air force to attack Iran in stages, first removing air defenses, top commanders, and the highly defended Natanz nuclear site.
The IDF attacked around 80 targets in Iran overnight and continues to attack almost nonstop.
After that stage, the IDF has started focusing more on individual ballistic missile sites and attack vehicles, although this is difficult because they are mobile and Israeli aircraft must fly back to Israel for fuel at various points.
Unlike attacking Hezbollah, the IDF cannot use overwhelming firepower every day indefinitely.
Most drones cannot reach Iran and aircraft take hours at a time instead of 15 minutes.
An IDF official did say that progress has been faster than planned and that the US military is highly impressed, but that does not answer questions about the extended threat to the Israeli home front.
