It’s been a long time since the Oscars have truly been much fun, but at the 97th Academy Awards, which will be held on Sunday night in Los Angeles, there will be some suspense.
The ceremony will be broadcast on Yes Movies Drama with red-carpet coverage starting at 2 a.m. that night (the wee hours of March 3 in Israel) and a mercifully edited version will be shown on Tuesday, March 4, on the same Yes channel at 9:30 p.m.
This year has been marked by shifting front-runners, and strong competition in some acting categories, which always makes things more interesting. The other bright spot is that Fauda fan Conan O’Brien, who came to Israel and visited the set, is hosting (see box).
Hollywood’s A-listers seem to be more focused on the policies of the new US president and the California wildfires than the Middle East, but you can expect a few red Artist4Ceasefire pins on the red carpet – even though there actually is a ceasefire now – and likely no yellow-ribbon pins.
The Brigade, a group created by film industry professionals after October 7, released a statement last week condemning the Artist4Ceasefire pins, saying, “That pin is no symbol of peace. It is the emblem of Jewish bloodshed,” since it was inspired by a photo of the bloody hands of a member of a mob that lynched two soldiers in the West Bank in 2000. The documentary about the West Bank, No Other Land, is the heavy favorite in the Best Documentary Feature category, so expect the directors to make an accusation or two about the war when they win.
Now, on to the rest of the awards.
Best picture
There are now 10 nominees in this category, but the five that matter are those for which the director is also nominated.
Once the frontrunner, Emilia Perez, a Spanish-language musical about a transgender Mexican drug lord, was derailed not long ago by politically incorrect tweets by its lead actress, Karla Sofía Gascón.
That seemed to leave The Brutalist, the critically acclaimed winner of the Golden Globe for Best Drama, as the favorite.
But at the end of the day, Oscar voters rarely choose movies that are agony to sit through, which explains why CODA won over The Power of the Dog, and Spotlight beat The Revenant.
That leaves Anora, a movie with a likable protagonist and a fun premise: A sex worker with a heart of gold, who marries the son of a Russian oligarch, gets into big trouble. It’s fast-paced, often funny, and has won some major industry awards.
Winner: Anora
Best director
Both Sean Baker, the director of Anora, and Brady Corbet of The Brutalist, made their movies for very low budgets by Hollywood standards, and everyone loves an underdog, but Anora is just so much more fun.
Winner: Sean Baker, Anora
Best actress
The main contenders here are Mikey Madison, a charming newcomer who is in virtually every frame of Anora, and Demi Moore, a veteran of the Brat Pack movies who got great reviews for her comeback in The Substance, in a black comedy/horror movie about an aging celebrity who will do anything to look young. It’s kind of a Cinderella story for Moore, who was never taken seriously before.
Winner: Demi Moore, The Substance
Best actor
This may be the closest acting category. Timothee Chalamet just won the Screen Actors Guild Award for playing Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown, so he definitely has a chance. But former Oscar winner Adrien Brody is generally seen as the favorite for his performance as a Holocaust survivor and architect, which was the best thing about The Brutalist.
Winner: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist.
Best supporting actress
Zoe Saldana seems to have emerged unscathed from the tweet scandal that tainted Emilia Perez, making graceful speeches at all the previous awards she has won.
Winner: Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
Best supporting actor
Kieran Culkin gave one of the most memorable performances of the year in Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain, about cousins going on a tour of Holocaust sites in Poland, a movie I wish would win more awards, but at least it will get this one.
Winner: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Best original screenplay
A Real Pain is full of lines and moments that stayed in my head long after the movie ended, but Sean Baker’s script for Anora is undeniably inventive and well crafted, with distinctive characters and laughs.
Winner: Sean Baker, Anora
Best adapted screenplay
Conclave, the movie about the struggle to choose a new pope, has a PC twist ending that will earn it an Oscar.
Winner: Peter Straughan, Conclave
Best international feature
The Iranian film, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, which was chosen as Germany’s selection because it is too critical of the regime to be supported by Iran, is a fascinating film, but Walter Salles’ I’m Still Here, a look at a Brazilian family in 1970 and how it is torn apart by the military dictatorship, is the front-runner.
Winner: I’m Still Here
There’s still time to enter Oscar prediction contests online, at Goldderby.com and many other sites.