An era of diplomacy is emerging in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia has reconciled with Iran, in a deal brokered by China and supported by Iraq. This key deal means that one of the major centers of tensions in the region could be reduced.
The Saudi deal appears to have quick repercussions for Yemen and an end to the conflict there. There are also moves for reconciliation between Egypt and Turkey that could help reduce clashes in Libya. Overall there is an attempt to end the conflict in Syria. All of this could be that suddenly decades of wars in the Middle East are coming to an end.
If peace breaks out in the Middle East, is it plausible that the focus may shift towards the Israel-Palestinian conflict?
Will the focus be on Israel-Palestine conflict?
For years it has been assumed that the Israel-Palestinian conflict was out of the spotlight. This occurred because of a variety of reasons.
The US was shifting focus from various “road maps” for peace, to focusing on what is called “near-peer” adversaries. This means the US wants to focus on Russia and China. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has helped shift this focus. China is also making a play for more influence globally, hosting Brazilian and French leaders recently.
Between the US giving up on various “peace” plans and the US shifting to focus on China and Russia, there is a tendency to think that the “conflict” that dominated so much discussion since the 1970s might be dying down.
The reduction in terrorism and shift away from the focus on “counter-insurgency” as the region returns to diplomacy also goes along with an apparent reduction in the interest young people have in extremism. This means groups like Hamas are no longer recruiting very many young people.
The consequences are that there is less chance of new emergencies of Al Qaeda or ISIS-like groups that sowed conflict everywhere. However, this phenomenon of the “aging terrorists” across the region, means that the West Bank and Gaza maybe even more in focus.
So what do we know so far?
The US is focusing on China and Russia. Terror groups are being reduced. Into this vacuum comes a major push by regional countries to do things on their own.
Saudi Arabia is a key example of this independent policy. Other countries, such as Egypt, Turkey, the UAE and Iraq are all maneuvering. None of them seem particularly focused on the Israel-Palestinian issue. But that doesn’t mean they won’t eventually come around.
Right now there are winds of change blowing. These are the kinds of changes that took place during the era of the 1950s and also the 1990s. In the 1960s the region shifted to Arab Nationalism as colonial powers faded. In the 1990s the Cold War ended and the region became part of the US global hegemony.
The weakening of the Arab regimes, such as Saddam’s Iraq led to a different era. Islamic groups flourished and the monarchies came to dominate again. Soviet funding and arms dried up. Ossification set in for leaders of Yemen, Libya, Egypt and Tunisia. They fell from power.
The Palestinians benefited from the winds of change. They gained support in the 60s and 70s at the UN and their cause became a cause celebre. In the 1990s the end of the Cold War led to the Oslo Accords. But two states didn’t come into being. Instead, the Palestinians were also affected by the winds of extremism sweeping the region and groups like Hamas believed suicide bombings could win against Israel.
Instead, they lost and ended up beholden to Iran’s rocket engineers, blockaded in Gaza. But all things change eventually. Now Hamas leaders are once again jet-setting around the region, and it looks like they might be making new inroads. They may benefit as Iran shifts priorities from Yemen.
Iranian regime needs an enemy to fight
The Iran regime needs an enemy to fight, and it will move resources from Yemen to Iraq and Syria and Lebanon and it will work to embolden terror and militant groups in Gaza and the West Bank.
Once Iran feels it is time to operationalize this new concept it is likely to begin to increase the pressure on Israel. It already did this in early April with the drone flown from Syria, backing Hamas rocket fire from Lebanon and backing a small group in Syria to fire rockets at Israel; and pushing for more clashes in Jenin and Nablus.
It also organized a meeting for Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Baghdad, the same PIJ that had just been in Beirut hanging out with Ismael Haniyeh in early April. The same Haniyeh who is apparently seeking outreach to Saudi Arabia. The same Saudi Arabia that has just brokered a deal with Iran. The same Iran that was behind the rocket fire against Israel on Passover. If you’ve read this far, you get a sense of the circle and can draw the conclusion that Iran is making important moves even as it claims to be doing “peace” with the Saudis, it is pushing for war with Israel.
The winds of the change in the region, the new era of diplomacy, US shifting priorities, and Iran’s shifting priorities, could all add up to moves that bring the West Bank and Gaza back into the spotlight. There is a quote attributed to Leon Trotsky that “you may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you.” Indeed, while most of the region may not be interested in war, war may be interested in the region. Towards that end clashes in Gaza or the West Bank may be what interests the region soon.