Syria’s regime is on the verge of losing its northern city of Aleppo to rebel groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) due to both its weakness and that of Iran’s backing, which has been lessened by the blows that Israel has delivered to Tehran and its axis of proxies.
This is an important regional crossroads that could deal the regime its largest blow in years. Up until several days ago, the Syrian regime believed its backers in Moscow and Tehran could keep it safe. It watched as Israel eliminated thousands of Hezbollah terrorists, but it assumed this wouldn’t spill over to Damascus.
It’s worth looking back several years to understand how important this moment is. In 2015, Iranian IRGC Quds Force leader Qasem Soleimani was
key to bringing Russia into Syria to support the regime’s war against its own people during the civil war there, which began in 2011 and increased in 2012.
The regime was on the ropes. Russia had been focused on Ukraine in 2014 when Moscow invaded Crimea and some areas in eastern Ukraine.
This was a more limited version of what Russia has done since 2022.
What happened in 2015-2016 in Syria
Udi Dekel wrote at the Institute for National Security Studies in 2020 that “Soleimani personally commanded the battle for Aleppo in December 2015 and, in the summer before, traveled to Moscow in order to recruit Russia to intervene militarily in the war against the rebels.” Indeed, Soleimani was key to helping the regime reconquer Aleppo from the rebels in 2016. Russia and Iran were there, too. Hezbollah had moved forces to Syria in 2012, mostly via Qusayr in northern Lebanon.
After 2016, the Syrian regime went on to take over more areas from the rebels. The rebels ended up divided; some of them became proxies of Turkey, while others moved to Idlib to live under Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
HTS HAS a long backstory, as years ago, it was linked to al-Qaeda before rebranding itself several times. In 2020, the group made moves to try to ingratiate itself with the West and even attempted outreach to the US. Nevertheless, it remains a more extreme faction of the Syrian rebels.
It is also the only real independent faction these days with serious forces on the ground. HTS showed this week what it was capable of, brushing aside Syrian regime forces and conquering dozens of villages, marching into Aleppo. For many observers, this is a reminder of how the weakened Iraqi army fled Mosul in 2014. Now, the Syrian regime is fleeing.
Back in 2015-2016, the Syrian regime had thousands of Hezbollah members to help, and it had Iran’s backing and Russian warplanes. Now, the regime seems powerless in part because Moscow is focused on Ukraine, Israel has smashed Hezbollah, and the Lebanese terrorist group can’t send forces via Qusayr to help.
Israel has not only bombed border crossings between Syria and Lebanon to prevent Hezbollah from rearming, but has also killed thousands of Hezbollah terrorists. The terrorist group’s command and control has also been eviscerated.
This leaves Syria’s regime alone, in a way.
Syria is still divided. Turkey occupies part of the north and has used the former Syrian rebel groups to fight Kurds, primarily the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), who control eastern Syria. Meanwhile, HTS controls Idlib in northern Syria. The Syrian regime controls the major cities in the west: Hama, Homs, and Damascus.
Aleppo is now vulnerable. This shows the unintended consequences of Iran’s policy.
Tehran backed Hamas, which led to the October 7 attack of Gaza border communities. Iran asked Hezbollah to strike Israel that day in the North, and Hezbollah began its attacks the next day.
Israel had to focus on Hamas during most of the last year, but in September, the Jewish state shifted its focus to fight Hezbollah.
Hezbollah has now lost many fighters and a large portion of its arsenal. The new ceasefire lets it have some breathing space, but it is in no way capable of helping Damascus.
Hezbollah’s new leader Naim Qassem is also not Hassan Nasrallah, who was a friend of Soleimani. Now, they and other Iranian-backed figures are all dead. Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis was killed alongside Soleimani in a US airstrike in Baghdad in 2020. The major Iranian axis players are now removed from the border. This has weakened the Syrian regime.
History had other plans for the Syrian regime
UP UNTIL a week ago, the Syrian regime thought history was going its way. It had normalized ties with Egypt and several key Gulf states. Iran’s diplomats were making major inroads in the region, including in Egypt and the Gulf. Iran had joined BRICS and was working closely with Russia. Tehran was sending Russia drones and had also prodded militias in Iraq and Yemen to attack Israel.
Iran believed Israel was isolated, but now Tehran may be struggling. Syria’s regime is the jewel in Iran’s crown. It is a major asset, and its weakness makes the Islamic Republic vulnerable.
Tehran uses Syria to move weapons to Hezbollah. Israel has vowed not to let Hezbollah rearm. Iraqi militias, backed by Iran, are also key to Tehran’s strategy. They may move to Syria now to help the regime in the Aleppo battle. These militias include Kataib Hezbollah, Asaib Ahl al-Haq, Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, and others. They have an influence in the middle of the Euphrates River Valley, which is called the MERV. On the eastern side of the MERV are US forces and the SDF. The SDF is the main group that controls eastern Syria and is backed by the US in the fight against ISIS.
The crisis in Aleppo could force the Syrian regime to strip defenses elsewhere in the country. This could help ISIS or could lead Iraqi militias to move into areas of Syria.
Those militias could end up threatening the Golan as well as US forces in Syria, as they have in the past. This is important and comes as incoming US President-elect Donald Trump is preparing to take office. Trump had sought to withdraw American forces from Syria in 2018 and 2019. This means many fronts are in play in the region.
What began on October 7 with the Hamas attack and Iran mobilizing militias for a seven-front war against Israel could backfire for Iran. However, Tehran is still trying to harm Israel, especially by moving weapons to the West Bank to help its proxies there. Israel thwarted one Iranian-backed smuggling attempt over the past week. This means that the Islamic Republic is still trying to set things aflame. However, Iran must now watch what is happening in Aleppo.