"The Middle East is experiencing a turning point," explained Blaise Misztal in an interview with Maariv regarding the US policy for the region under US President Donald Trump.
Misztal, who previously served as a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and as the director of the Bipartisan Policy Center's National Security Program, currently works as vice president of policy at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA). This organization promotes US security interests in the Middle East and touts that Israel is the most vital US security partner in the 21st century.
Trump's approach to the Middle East
Misztal explained that Trump views issues through the lens of deals and negotiations but often addresses each topic separately rather than connecting them into a comprehensive regional strategy. This, he explained, is a problem.
"The problem is that [Trump] sees each issue separately. He doesn't connect the dots to an overall regional strategy. We need to understand that all these challenges are interconnected: Gaza, Lebanon, normalization, and whether Iran will succeed in restoring its regional power and proxy network."
Drawing a parallel to the administration of president Ronald Reagan, I suggested that while some in Washington doubted Reagan had a coherent doctrine until it was defined, specifically by Charles Krauthammer in his 1985 article "Essay: The Reagan Doctrine" in Time Magazine, a similar situation might exist with Trump.
"You can see some of the connecting lines," Misztal replied. "The proposal regarding Gaza could be linked to normalization talks with Saudi Arabia and the second phase of negotiations with Hamas. Trump defines himself as the master of the deal." He continued, explaining that Trump takes pride in his negotiation strategies.
However, Mizstal said that many in Washington worry about whether Trump has a comprehensive general strategy, whether this is just a specific solution to specific problems, or even just shooting from the hip.
I pointed out that there are significant differences between Trump's first term and the current one. In his first term, Trump and his team followed standard protocol in writing numerous detailed documents, including an over 100-page-long plan to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
However, I noted that the main thing that Trump managed to promote wasn't known to the public and was never investigated in a multitude of research institutes and academic conferences. The Abraham Accords were made discreetly, quietly, and mostly away from the public eye. As such, it is possible that Trump's plans may seem disorganized but could actually be more effective.
The Iranian threat: What Israel and Trump are missing
There is a belief by many that Iran has been brought to its knees and is weak now. Misztal, however, pointed out that this is a grave misconception.
"This is a dangerous mistake. Iran is on the verge of obtaining nuclear weapons, and the window of opportunity to address its threat is closing fast," he warned. He highlighted Iran's construction of a new nuclear facility in Natanz, built so deep underground that even the most powerful US bombs cannot penetrate it. Additionally, Iran is acquiring Sukhoi-35 fighter jets from Russia, and UN sanctions on Iran are set to expire in October.
He further added that Hamas and Iran are far more interconnected than people realize.
"The visit of a Hamas delegation to Tehran this week, in the midst of the hostage crisis, shows how deep this relationship goes," Misztal said. "It is no coincidence that Hamas announced the delay in releasing the hostages just a day after the visit of Tehran."
The biggest misconception is how people view Iran's danger.
"The big mistake is that Trump, like many others, sees Iran only as a nuclear problem," Misztal said. "He thinks that if he solves it with diplomacy, he can celebrate and say the problem has been fixed. But Iran is an entire regional problem, from Lebanon through Syria to Yemen. Even if the nuclear problem is dealt with, we will still need to deal with Iran's influence in the region."
The power struggle in the Gulf
Saudi Arabia and Qatar, both key US allies, are both noted to be in constant tension over regional influence.
"It's complicated," Misztal noted. " Amongst the majority of people in DC, there is the belief that the US needs both, as Saudi Arabia is essential for stabilizing the region and keeping Iran contained. Qatar is essential because of its air force base, which was critical in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, especially when other Gulf states refused to provide a base. They are also economically essential – especially now that Gaza, Syria, and Lebanon need to be rebuilt."
He further explained that this is a continuation of the previous Trump administration, which helped end the Saudi-Emirati boycott of Qatar.
"The US understands that it needs the economic power, regional influence, and cooperation of both [Qatar and Saudi Arabia] to stabilize the region," he said.
The struggle for the future of the Middle East
"The region is in a dramatic period of change," Misztal explained. "The regional players are competing for power and influence, and places that were once under Iranian control are now open. On the one side are moderate Sunni monarchies like the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. On the other are the countries that support the Muslim Brotherhood, like Turkey and Qatar. Russia and China are still here, too. And all this is happening at a time when Iran is weak but still dangerous."
The reality of the region, he noted, is made up of complex connections.
"The situation in Gaza, the situation in Lebanon, and normalization – everything is connected," Misztal noted. "In Israel, they often talk about the 'head of the octopus' [in regards to Iran], and that's true. The question is whether Iran will succeed in restoring its power in the region, whether it will manage to rehabilitate its proxies, and of course, whether it will obtain nuclear weapons."
Trump's plan for Gaza
In an interview with Fox News, when asked if Gazans would be able to return after being moved elsewhere, Trump seemed to imply they would not be able to.
Mizstal said that this was true; however, "people in his administration have already begun to back away from that statement. This shows the problem – until we see a well-organized plan, we can't assess what his real intentions are. Moreover, the basic idea he's working with – ֪transferring a population during conflict – isn't any different from what we've seen elsewhere.
"When you look at the rest of the world, population transfers during a conflict until the country is rebuilt isn't unusual. There have been four million Syrians in Turkey for 13 years, two million Ukrainians in Poland, a million Syrians in Germany."
When asked if Trump's statements about evacuating Gazans is a real plan or simply a negotiating tactic, Misztal answered that this is a complex question.
"On the one hand, as has been reported in the media, people in the Trump administration are saying that the issue has not been discussed internally. On the other hand, when Trump talks about private investment and economic development, it's part of his worldview. He sees solutions in terms of deals and investments. But it's important to understand that this is not just real estate. This is a strategy to pressure the Gulf states to invest more in the reconstruction of the region."
While Trump has spoken about private investments in Gaza, Misztal, who relies on insiders and analysts, says that Trump actually plans to rely on money from the Gulf states. "In Trump's eyes, this is exactly the art of the deal," he said. "He's presenting a vision of private economic development to get the Gulf states to open their wallets and invest more than they plan to. It's a classic negotiation tactic – giving an alternative to motivate the other side to take action."
He further noted that "The 2005-2006 plan for Gaza – putting a terrorist group in power and letting Qatar bring in $30 million in cash every month – sounds even crazier to me. Especially when you see what they broadcast on Al Jazeera about the US and Israel, and under the education and influence the children now in Gaza have grown up with."
Rehabilitating the population of Gaza is one of the biggest challenges.
"Half of all Gazans are under the age of 18," he said. "This means they grew up exclusively under Hamas rule, were educated in their education system, and were influenced by their ideology. If we are serious about deradicalization, we need to think carefully about who will be responsible for the schools and mosques in a rehabilitated Gaza.
"If Israel is serious about a plan that includes deradicalizing Gaza, I really wouldn't want to see a future where schools and mosques are run by Qatar or Turkey. I have no confidence that the ideology and vision of Islam they will teach will make the Middle East safer."
And this is the real dilemma, Misztal noted. "We need to figure out how to take the money without the ideology. How to use the funds without giving them the influence to poison it."
The Middle East will not stay the same for long
Misztal warned that it's a dangerous assumption to make that in the Middle East, what is true today will be true tomorrow.
"If there is a lesson from October 7, it's that things can change, and quickly," he said. "Therefore, we need a new vision for the region that will exploit Iran's current weakness and build up forces and institutions that will ensure Iran can't return [to strength]. How do we ensure Israel works with the Abraham Accords partnership to build regional military capabilities? How do we protect the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait? How do we build integrated air defense against Iranian missiles and drones? Maybe even a deployment of troops to protect the Jordanian border from what Syria may become.
"This requires real security cooperation. Joint air defense efforts, naval cooperation in the Red Sea, and perhaps forces to protect Jordan's borders. Normalization with Saudi Arabia is important, but it needs to be part of a broader process. Without such a vision, we risk missing a historic opportunity to reshape the face of the region."