Israeli officials have made it clear in recent months that the IDF has the capacity to attack Iran’s nuclear sites. Still, for now, Israel is waiting on US President Donald Trump’s diplomatic opening with Tehran, top sources said on Thursday.
No Israeli official would give an exact timeline as to how long they will give Trump to reach a new, more acceptable nuclear deal with the Islamic Republic, but a statement by Defense Minister Israel Katz on January 26, reports yesterday from The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post, and a report in late January from Al Arabiya – have all indicated that potential action could come in the upcoming months.
Katz hinted at this potential action in his initial congratulatory letter to incoming US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.
“Iran and its partners continue to threaten... regional and global stability. The upcoming months present us with challenges that require military readiness and opportunities that allow us to further our strategic goals. I am confident that together we can succeed, creating long-term stability and a better future for the region,” reads the letter.
Israel is prepared to attack
On Thursday, both the Journal and the Post published reports that US intelligence concluded that Israel is prepared to attack Iran’s nuclear program around the first half of 2025.
On January 20, Al Arabiya reported that a senior European diplomat said that Israel already decided it would attack the nuclear sites, implying that such an attack was not imminent, but also not far away.
“We believe Israel has taken the decision to attack following the developments in the Middle East over the last several months,” one senior European diplomat said, according to the report.
Katz said recently that Israel is ready more than ever to potentially attack Iran and its nuclear facilities, something which several Israeli and US officials have said more frequently in recent months.
A significant aspect of these statements is that since Israel’s counterattack that destroyed Iranian anti-aircraft defenses on October 26, Iran’s nuclear sites are more vulnerable than they have been in years, and the Israel Air Force has shown it can attack there with deadly precision.
Israel’s counterattack came after Israel launched a massive aerial attack on April 13-14, with around 300 ballistic missiles. This attack was the first direct confrontation between Tehran and Jerusalem.
The Post laid out two possible attack strategies: the first, a distance attack, known as a standoff strike, which involves the firing of air-launched ballistic missiles, or ALBMs, outside of Iranian airspace; the second, arguably riskier option, involves Israeli aircraft entering Iranian airspace, flying near the nuclear sites and dropping BLU-109s, a type of bunker buster.
The sale of guidance kits for BLU-109s to Israel was approved by the Trump administration just last week.
Dug deep under a mountain
Iran has one of its key nuclear facilities dug deep under a mountain at Fordow, and another potential future facility deep under a mountain near Natanz. This is all in addition to the existing above-ground nuclear facilities at Natanz.
It is unclear that the BLU-109s, which are part of a 2,000-pound weapons package, would be sufficient to penetrate these underground facilities, and as such, Israel has – for years – requested a 30,000-pound MOAB (mother of all bombs) bunker buster from the US, with Washington always refusing, including during Trump’s first presidential term.
However, the Post has described methods to damage or cut off access to such facilities without destroying them completely, which could be accomplished even without a MOAB.
Despite Israel’s excitement about its achievements against Iran’s air defenses and about Trump’s perceived support for a grand attack to destroy Tehran’s nuclear program, Trump has sent repeated clear signals since his inauguration that he wants time for diplomacy.
Just last week, Trump wrote, “Reports that the United States, working in conjunction with Israel, is going to blow Iran into smithereens, ARE GREATLY EXAGGERATED,” on Truth Social.
Accordingly, the Post understands that Israel will definitely give Trump some period of months for diplomacy.The real cut-off may not be the first half of 2025 as much as it is the known October 18, 2025 deadline date for the parties to the 2015 nuclear deal to invoke the global snapback sanctions mechanism.
Israel may feel forced to act if the snapback is not invoked and then expires.
Program possibly set back
While the Post says an Israeli strike might only set back Iran’s nuclear program by months, other top sources believe they could set back the program by one to two years.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian made an unprecedented admission on Thursday – that Tehran’s enemies may be able to strike the country’s nuclear centers, but then added his view that they cannot deprive it of its ability to build new ones.
“They threaten us that they will hit nuclear facilities… If you [the enemy] strike a hundred of those, we will build a thousand other ones… You can hit the buildings and the places, but you cannot hit those who build them,” Pezeshkian said, according to Iranian state media.
Top sources would acknowledge that one major strike on Iran’s nuclear program would not end the threat but do say that it would relieve the current threat, impose new costs on continuing the program, and maintain Israel’s success at blocking the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program dating back to the late 1990s.