Wars rarely produce “clean” victories, and the latest conflict between Israel and Hamas is no exception.
Fifteen months on, thousands lie dead and many more are injured. While Gaza has been reduced to rubble, Hamas still exerts control, hostages remain captive, and a ceasefire is hanging by a thread. Wars are a messy business, yet both sides claim to have won this one.
Has either emerged victorious? To answer that, The Jerusalem Post spoke with two experts: renowned Israeli journalist and Israeli-Palestinian relations expert Shlomi Eldar and Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, a resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and an ardent advocate for the Palestinians. The perspectives of these two men, though opposed, converge in surprising ways.
Hamas: broken but breathing
For all of Israel’s military might, Hamas has survived. Its infrastructure is devastated, its command weakened, yet it remains in power in the coastal enclave of Gaza. The question is no longer whether Hamas has been beaten, it has. Rather and more significantly, contends Eldar – who survived a kidnapping attempt by the terror group in 2004 - is the question of what comes next.
“Hamas is a shadow of its former self,” said naturalized US citizen, Alkhatib, who witnessed Gaza’s suffering firsthand.
“They’ve lost many of their seasoned fighters but are rebuilding from muscle memory.”
Prior to the October 7 massacre, Hamas had operated with military precision: organized units, tunnel warfare, and steady salaries. While its ranks may appear in disarray, Alkhatib warned: “Poorly trained teenagers wielding AK47s can still inflict damage.”
Eldar agreed, but took a bird’s eye view: “The movement’s fundamentalistic ideologies ensure its survival. They regrouped in 1987, 1998, 2007, and now in 2025.” History, he suggested, tends to repeat itself.
What has changed to some extent, however, is Hamas’ role in Gaza. They never governed well. Today they rule without the burden of responsibility.
“They do not have to provide for Gaza anymore,” said Alkhatib. “The international community successfully does that for them.”
A Pyrrhic victory for Israel?
Israel entered the war with three clear objectives: eliminate Hamas, rescue the hostages, and secure the state’s southern border. Over a year later, the results are mixed, at best.
Eldar, the first Israeli journalist to interview both the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) leader Yasser Arafat and Hamas strongman Ismail Haniyeh, was blunt in his assessment: “Netanyahu’s declaration of total victory was premature and misguided, and his long-held belief that between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority the former was the lesser evil has now been utterly shattered.”
Hamas remains entrenched in Gaza, and without a plan for the “day after,” Israel has prolonged the very problem it sought to eliminate. “For every fighter we take out, they find a way to replace him,” Eldar emphasized. The unintended consequence? Hamas has outlasted expectations, reinforcing its grip on Gaza.
“They may have been battered, but they were also bolstered by this war. They proved that they are the “day after,” Alkhatib explained.
While a staunch Hamas critic, in his view, worse than Hamas being seen as a “legitimate resistance” movement is “Israel’s severely weakened international standing as it now faces genocide claims in two global courts.”
The ultimate irony? Israel, which swore against negotiating with Hamas, is now doing just that, albeit indirectly.
Theater of failure
As the ceasefire took shape, Hamas staged a grotesque spectacle: Its fighters in full military that they had not worn in months parading around released Israeli hostages on newly constructed stages among the ruins of Gaza. It was a performance, without a doubt, but more than for just the Palestinians - it was a show put on for the entire world.
“These staged celebrations are pure theater,” Eldar said. “Look at the footage: Most of the crowd is children. That is not genuine support, it’s desperation.”
Eldar, who is fluent in Arabic and has friends in the Gaza Strip, explains, “Hamas is no longer a social organization that provides for the poor but a militant force clinging to power in a place where nothing is left.”
Alkhatib, whose mother and brother are now homeless in Gaza, sees the grim reality beneath the spectacle: “People in Gaza are furious at Hamas, but they are powerless. They are nothing more than human capital in a geopolitical chess game.”
While the terror group is seen as the root of their suffering, “Israeli bombardment and constant war and destruction have not left much room for an alternative narrative,” he explained. Reinforcing this bleak truth is the media, specifically Al Jazeera Arabic which is “as guilty as Hamas of perpetuating the cycle of violence,” Alkhatib said.
“They are Hamas’ inseparable media arm,” he explained. “They don’t report, they promote.”
The absurdity is undeniable and highlights the colossal failures on both sides: Hamas claims victory in a complete wasteland and yet Israel remains at Hamas’ mercy.
The regional chessboard
The ripple effects of the Israel-Hamas War extend beyond Israel and Gaza and have reshaped the regional balance of power.
On this, both experts agree: Iran has sustained the most setbacks.
“Iran’s Shia influence is collapsing,” Alkhatib pointed out. “Its proxies in Syria and Lebanon are faltering. The regime’s nuclear ambitions are more exposed than ever.”
Eldar concurred, adding that Hamas would now seek support elsewhere. “They no longer see themselves as just an Iranian agent.” Instead, he suggeted, they would “look toward global Islamic fronts to recover and rebuild.”
Alkhatib is convinced that the Palestinians are unquestionably the biggest losers in this war, noting the painful paradox of exceptionalism they face: Arab states supply the bulk of humanitarian aid and yet when it comes to offering tangible sanctuary, they refuse.
Despite this Arab blockade on accepting Palestinian refugees, Alkhatib finds it hard to blame close allies whose own countries are unstable.
“Egypt’s population is exploding, and Jordan practically survives on American aid. Neither can afford a refugee crisis right now,” he said.
So, staying put may be the only horizon the Palestinians have – unless United States President Donald Trump’s bombshell idea to transform Gaza into the “Riviera of the Middle East” materializes.
Eldar laughed. “It’s nothing more than a fantasy, a dream. Hamas will never willingly disarm and evacuate.” He sees little chance, either, of anybody being able to turn Gaza into a “Middle Eastern Singapore.”
No winners, only losers
They may have been in alignment on most of the issues but for the experts, a winner there is – even if not so clearly defined.
For Eldar, Hamas, mainly its political echelon, have been irrefutably beaten, but Israel has come out heavily bruised and battered too.
“The Israeli army razed Gaza, but it failed to [conquer] Hamas and that is a major problem.”
Notwithstanding, Eldar is adamant in believing that Israel has the upper hand: “If nothing else, the war forced a security reckoning: Israelis will never view their borders and security the same way again.”
Alkhatib, however, sees Hamas as the de facto winner. “They are still on the ground in Gaza and dictating the region’s [connection] calculus,” he said. “That alone is a success.”
Both experts concluded that this war, like so many before it, is ending not in triumph but with more hardship.
“We’re stuck in the worst of both worlds,” Alkhatib said. “No peace, no total war.” Eldar added, “The biggest losers? Civilians on both sides, trapped in an endless cycle of destruction.”
So, who won the war?
The answer to that, like the volatile and complex Middle East, is messy and unresolved.