The jailed leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), Abdullah Ocalan, called on Thursday for members of his group to disarm. This comes as another statement he released called for a ceasefire with Turkey and points the way for the PKK to be dissolved.
This could have an impact on the region. The PKK has been active not only in Turkey; affiliated groups and its members exist in Syria, Iraq, and Iran. Its war with Ankara has had a major impact in Turkey and the region.
Turkey has established bases in northern Iraq for decades, claiming to be fighting the PKK there. This has harmed Kurds who live in northern Iraq. It also poses a challenge for the Kurdistan autonomous region of Iraq.
In Syria, Turkey invaded the Kurdish area of Afrin in 2018, claiming to be fighting the PKK. Ankara also accuses the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) of being part of the PKK. This poses a challenge for the US anti-ISIS effort and has led to Ankara bombing many areas in eastern Syria.
Turkey has also operated in other countries, including France, seeking to go after what it claims are PKK members.
Ankara claims it is involved in a global war on terror against an organization that it believes is an existential threat. This came to a head in 2015 when a ceasefire with the PKK broke down into fighting across eastern Turkey.
Turkey usually claims that up to 40,000 people have been killed in the war with the PKK. Many of the lives affected are Kurdish, and this has cast a long shadow over politics in the country. Ankara often accuses local politicians of terror ties by asserting they are linked to parties that have links to the PKK.
Kurdish communities and lead to parties that Ankara accused of being linked to the PKK being able to have candidates.
The question now is whether the insurgent group will actually heed this call by Ocalan. It also remains to be seen if PKK affiliates will agree or form offshoots. Another issue is whether Ankara takes this initiative to respond with peace overtures or if it ramps up its military campaign.
Impact on Syria
Another major question relates to Syria. The SDF say that this call is not linked to them. Ankara could accuse the SDF of being a new threat and increase its attacks, or decide to bifurcate things and finally realize the SDF is not a “terrorist” group, as it terms it.
This could lead to a deal in Syria or also lead the SDF to make a deal with the new government in Damascus. It could also lead the Trump administration to change tack in Syria.
A lot of things are up in the air. Israel’s Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar has often backed the Kurds in Syria, and this could be an opening to do more.
On another note, this could lead to changes in northern Iraq and areas such as Sinjar, where the Yazidi minority lives. Ankara has carried out attacks in this area in the past, claiming Yazidi groups are linked to the PKK.
The change in policy may also affect Qandil, the area in northern Iraq where the PKK has been active. It could also affect groups such as the Kurdish Free Life Party (PJAK) in Iran, which is considered to be close to the PKK.
While much could change in the region if people seize the baton, much could also remain the same.