On March 1, the first phase of the hostage and ceasefire deal ended between Hamas and Israel.Usually, when a ceasefire deal ends, the two sides return to fighting. This is especially true if one side receives nothing in return.
However, more than a week and a half later, Hamas is receiving a ceasefire, and Israel has received no hostages in return. During the first phase of the ceasefire deal, 33 hostages were released in 42 days, with three hostages being freed every Saturday. No hostages were freed this past Saturday, though.
The question is, how did Hamas outmaneuver Israel to get a ceasefire extended with nothing in return? A larger question is how did it happen to coincide with Ramadan?
It appears that the terror group was also able to outplay Israel last year during Ramadan 2024, which took place in March. During that period, Jerusalem also reduced the intensity of operations in Gaza, and Hamas was able to recuperate. The terrorists appear to be able to secure de facto ceasefires for Ramadan each year without having to ever do anything in return. This is in contrast to how Hamas treats Israel.
On Simchat Torah 2023, Hamas attacked the Jewish state, murdered more than 1,200 people, and took 250 hostages.
Today, it is sitting in Gaza as if it won the war. The group relaxes, and its men walk around freely. Large numbers of terrorists have been released in January and February to secure the deal. There are essentially no repercussions for Hamas.
During the 2024 de facto Ramadan ceasefire, the IDF was still operating in parts of Gaza, such as the Netzarim Corridor, and there were airstrikes.
US involvement
Today, there are no airstrikes or tanks in Netzarim. The only place the military continues to hold in Gaza is the Philadelphi Corridor along the Egyptian border.
Hamas says it wants phase two of the ceasefire deal, but Jerusalem has been adamant that it won’t enter into the second phase, under which the war would end, Israel would leave Rafah, and Hamas would release all the hostages.
The terror group called Israel’s bluff on March 1, and Jerusalem didn’t decide to return to war. There may be some reasons for this. The IDF is in transition from former chief of staff Lt.-Gen.
Herzi Halevi to the new Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir who took on the reins of the military on Wednesday.
On the other hand, there appears to have been a belief that Hamas would be flexible and agree to Israel’s terms. When it didn’t agree after March 1, there was talk of what might happen next. Some reports claimed Israel would return to fighting in “days” or a week. However, Hamas, thinking time was on its side, again called this bluff and simply waited.
ANOTHER ASPECT of the ceasefire that continued were reports that US President Donald Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, would come and hammer out a deal as he did in mid-January during the lead-up to the first deal.
However, Witkoff has many things on his plate. Reports indicated that in the absence of phase two, he favored a proposal where half the remaining hostages in Gaza would be released on the first day of a new deal and half at the end of the deal when the war would perhaps end or at least when Ramadan and Passover would be over.
However, Hamas apparently felt it could negotiate better terms. Thus, after a few days, reports of another deal emerged. Maybe the terror group would release 10 living hostages for a 60-day ceasefire. Hamas played for time and didn’t seem to care for that deal either.
Now, reports indicate that it has been in direct contact with the Trump administration. Adam Boehler, the US special presidential envoy for hostage affairs, did rounds of interviews on Sunday discussing the initiative to discuss a deal with Hamas. Washington wants the hostages released, and Trump has met with the hostages. The president wants something to happen. He is willing to do what it takes to get the hostages, including Americans, out of Gaza.
In some circles in Israel, there has been concern about the direct talks with Hamas. The Jewish state doesn’t seem to be in a hurry to do a deal, while the US appears to be in more of a rush to get the hostages out of Gaza. Hamas understands the interplay here and assumes it can sit for Ramadan and that nothing will happen.
Israel has said it has cut off aid to Gaza and also now cut off electricity. These decisions seem more performative than effective.
Hamas has electricity in the enclave and has stockpiled aid from the first phase of the ceasefire. Therefore, Hamas continues to relax. It reads the Israeli reports about Jerusalem incrementally increasing pressure and considering other operations in Gaza.
Hamas thinks nothing is going to happen, and it also seems to believe it can play the US off against itself by stalling and carrying out various tracks of discussions via Doha and Cairo.
The overall story here is simple. It’s in Hamas’s interests to have a ceasefire and recuperate and rebuild. So long as Israel and the US are willing to talk endlessly with Hamas – just as happened throughout 2024 with no resulting deal – Hamas and its allies in Doha and Cairo will continue to outplay Israel and the US.
This is the story of how Hamas received a Ramadan ceasefire and so far has not had to do anything in return.