Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan used the end of Ramadan to bash Israel, calling on God to destroy “Zionist Israel.” Turkey’s state-run news agency Anadolu toned down the comment slightly in its report, writing that Erdogan said, “May Allah damn Zionist Israel.”
The comments and the report come after harsh statements from both the Israeli and Turkish Foreign Ministries amid growing concerns in Israel about Turkey’s role in Syria.
“Here is a way to clarify the dictator’s [Erdogan’s] words: Clearly state that Erdogan is not an antisemite, that he is not an obsessive hater of the Jewish state,” reads a Sunday post from the Foreign Ministry.
Energy and Infrastructure Minister Eli Cohen (Likud) slammed Erdogan as well, saying that several years ago, Israel had sent a rescue mission to Turkey after an earthquake; Ankara turned on Jerusalem.
Erdogan’s comments may raise some eyebrows, but the fact remains that he has been talking like this for many years.
In 2019, Erdogan compared Israel to Nazi Germany, and he has made similar comments over the years. Usually, these comments rise and fall in severity depending on Ankara’s mood. Sometimes, talk of reconciliation would rise, followed by a less verbally abusive period. Other times, Ankara would inflame anger in the Islamic world and use it to attack Israel.
Growing Ankara-Damascus ties
Turkey’s religious leadership sought to make al-Aqsa and Jerusalem a greater cause in the fight. Historically speaking, Turkey was secular in the 20th century. However, the rise of the Justice and Development Party and Erdogan has transformed the country.
After the administration turned Hagia Sophia – a historic church that had been turned into a mosque hundreds of years ago and then had become a museum – back into a mosque, there were calls to follow up with a Turkish push to “liberate” Jerusalem from Israel.
In 2020, these types of comments became more normalized in Turkish media and among religious discussions. There has also been a rising undercurrent of antisemitism in Turkey, especially spurred on by far Right media.
ANOTHER COLLISION course with Ankara has been over its backing of Hamas. Turkey hosts Hamas members and has rolled out the red carpet for its leaders in the past; this has not changed since October 7.
Hamas directed attacks on Israel from Turkey, while the IDF recently apprehended a Hamas cell in Nablus that was operating under the direction and funding of Hamas’s Turkish headquarters.
More recently, the concern over a Turkey-Israel collision course has focused on Syria. After the fall of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad and his regime on December 8, it appeared that Syrian rebel groups linked to Turkey would take power in Damascus.
Foremost among them was Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa – today Syria’s president.Although HTS is not a direct Turkish proxy, it has ties to Turkey. Some of its members were educated and lived in Turkey, and it was based in Idlib for many years, which borders Turkey, while Turkish soldiers transited through HTS areas.
Since December, Turkey has done a lot of outreach to the new government in Damascus. During his first foreign tour, Sharaa visited Saudi Arabia first, but his second high-profile visit was to Turkey. Qatar, a close Turkish ally, has also made high-profile visits to Damascus.
It is clear that Ankara would like to play a major role in Syria – a role that will likely replace that of the Iranians and the Russians.
This means that Turkey would not only fund and help with reconstruction or road building but would also try to move security and defense ties closer to Damascus, which could mean that Turkey would refurbish old airfields and bases in strategic areas.
Since December, Israel has operated in Syria to destroy much of the former Syrian regime’s military assets, including bombing airfields and navy facilities. Most recently, the IDF carried out strikes at the T-4 Air Base (also known as the Tiyas Air Base) near Palmyra, an area that had been used by the Iranian and Syrian regimes.
Reports indicated that Turkey would like to have ties to some of these facilities. Removing the old regime’s hardware could lead to Turkey’s backfilling of these areas with new defense and security arrangements.
It is as of yet unclear if the Israeli airstrikes could backfire, leading Damascus to demand support and protection from Turkey.
Jerusalem seemed to want to send a message that this would not be tolerated, while leaders demanded the demilitarization of southern Syria near the Golan Heights. Airstrikes on Palmyra – not in southern Syria – showcase that Israel’s message goes beyond just that area.
The question is, will the message be received? Or will it encourage Turkey to move faster to begin moving defense infrastructure into Syria?
Turkey could begin by simply providing armored vehicles or old helicopters. If Ankara starts to move more sophisticated equipment to Syria, then this could lead to greater tensions. It is likely that Ankara knows this and doesn’t want to push this red line too far.
Currently, Syria has a new government that was named on Saturday. This establishment includes the same defense minister as the one that the previous transition government, which took power on December 8, had, along with the same foreign minister.
These are men who served with the HTS in Idlib, while the interior minister also has an HTS background. As such, the core group members around Sharaa in Damascus, who are discussing defense and security policy, are all HTS men. They all know what Turkey can provide if called upon, and they also know that Ankara managed relations with Russia and Iran in the past in Syria.
In the interim, Turkey is careful not to push things too far, preferring to balance things and slowly increase influence.While Ankara might initially be pragmatic, Israel’s airstrikes in Syria could lead to Damascus calling for assistance – this is the big question mark now.
Israel has weakened Hamas and Hezbollah, but if it continues its campaign in southern Syria, a power vacuum near the Golan could emerge, leading to Israel having yet another border with threats and chaos.
It appears that Jerusalem is leaning toward trying to preempt any Turkish threats in Syria.
However, the attempt to prevent it must be handled carefully because it could result in a self-fulfilling prophecy of alienating the new government in Damascus and driving it into the hands of Turkey.