Days after US President Donald Trump met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and praised Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it appears that Israel and Turkey may be on track for talks about Syria.
This is an important development as Israel has been bombing Syria and messaging that some of the strikes are designed to keep Turkey from moving into airbases near Palmyra and Hamas. The current talks about Syria between Israel and Turkey are in their preliminary stages. Azerbaijan, which is friendly with Turkey and Israel, may help smooth over tensions.Turkey is supportive of the new Syrian government of Ahmed al-Sharaa. Sharaa is also supported by Qatar and has traveled to Saudi Arabia. While Syria seeks to unify and also repair its relations in the region, Israel is worried about Ankara’s role there. Israel doesn’t want to see the Iranian threat in Syria replaced by a Turkish threat.
Iran was a partner of the Assad regime, which fell on December 8. Sharaa took over Syria, at first leading his Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and then partnering with others. Israeli officials have accused Sharaa of being a “jihadist” and extremist.However, the new Syrian government has not been hostile to Israel. On the contrary, they appear to want to put Syria’s house in order and could be a positive neighbor. However, Israel wants to preempt any threats.
This has led to a possible confrontation with Turkey. Now, it appears that deconfliction may be in the cards. Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has indicated that a deconfliction mechanism can be found in Syria. What this means is something similar to what happened in 2015 when Russia intervened in Syria on the side of Assad, and its warplanes began operating there.Israel wanted to deconflict with Russia. What that means is that Israel was carrying out airstrikes against Iranian entrenchment in Syria and didn’t want a situation where Russian warplanes and Israeli warplanes came into contact.It also meant dealing with Russian air defenses deployed near Khmeimim airbase in Latakia, where Russian forces were present.Today, the situation in Syria is different. Israel acted on December 8 to neutralize what remained of Assad’s former military assets. This included strikes on airbases and also a naval base. Since then, Israel has continued to defang military assets in Syria.However, as time goes by, the Syrian government doesn’t have many Assad military assets remaining. There are a handful of helicopters. There don’t seem to be combat aircraft or air defenses. Assad’s military equipment was aging anyway.However, a natural partner for the new Syrian government is Turkey, as it already has borders with it. Turkey has military forces in northern Syria. Turkey also has a robust arms industry. Unlike many Gulf states, which buy their arms from the West, Turkey makes many of its own arms. Turkey makes armored vehicles, drones, missiles, and many other systems that Syria would likely want to acquire. Turkey could also donate these systems, such as light armored vehicles.The concern for Israel is Turkey deploying air defenses or other more serious equipment. Israel has warned Syria that southern Syria must be demilitarized. As with the deconfliction with Russia, the demand for keeping threats away from the Golan is one that goes back to 2018.When the Syrian regime returned to the Golan, Israel had preferred that Iranian elements remain at least 60 km. from the border. Iran didn’t listen and sought to infiltrate the area with Hezbollah members. This caused tensions to increase.
Could Turkey replace the terror vacuum left by Iran?
Israel doesn’t want to see the Iranian vacuum replaced by Turkey. Therefore, a mechanism regarding both Israel’s and Turkey’s interests may help reduce tensions. Does this mean that Turkey will get de facto a sphere of influence in northern Syria, or all the way to Homs or Hama?So far, the talks are preliminary. Clearly, the Trump administration’s positive views of Turkey will help empower Ankara to push forward in Syria. Syria will also want Turkey’s support. The Israeli bombing of sites like the T-4 base near Palmyra has likely pushed Damascus into the hands of Ankara. Israel has not done outreach to try to smooth things over with Damascus and turn a new page.In fact, many Israeli officials have been more hostile to Sharaa in statements than they were to Assad’s regime. This rhetoric is strange, because Sharaa has not threatened Israel. Now, it is likely that things are not on course for positive engagement in Syria. However, things may be on course for more positive engagement with Turkey.Turkey is a close partner of Qatar. Qatar hosts and backs Hamas. Doha has had influence in Israel over the last decades, and prior to October 7, Doha used to transfer cash to Hamas via Israel. Israel thus has a complex relationship with both Doha and Ankara.Ankara and Doha back and host Hamas. Turkey has been officially hostile to Israel, comparing Israel to Nazi Germany. However, there are voices in Israel who believe Ankara and Israel are destined to work together because of the legacy of friendship that once existed and because, as two powerful countries in the region linked to the West, the states are destined to interact. Some people also think Turkey balances Russia and Iran. This may not be true since Ankara has close ties with Moscow and Tehran.What comes next? Fidan’s comments point to Turkey’s willingness to be flexible. Turkey has been cautious regarding Syria tensions. Trump’s comments in the meeting with Netanyahu show that Trump supports Erdogan and wants a deal in Syria.Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev may also play a helpful role in reducing tensions as Israel has positive ties with Baku. Azerbaijan and Turkey are close partners as well. This means that there could be important developments ahead. Baku’s role may be helpful, and combining it with Trump’s interest in patching up Israel-Turkey differences, many wheels may be in motion.