As US President Donald Trump prepares to return to the Middle East next week, attention is once again turning to the possibility of normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Trump, who launched the original Abraham Accords, is expected to use his upcoming visit as an opportunity to expand the framework. However, the regional dynamics have changed significantly since 2020, when the original accords were signed.
Saudi Arabia has moved closer to Iran, the war in Gaza – and, by extension, Israel’s existential battle with Iran – continues, and US influence in the region is less certain. The question now is whether Saudi Arabia will take the next step, or whether that moment has passed.
The Abraham Accords, signed in 2020, led to formal relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. For Trump, who has faced a dramatic first few months back in the White House, a renewed push in the Middle East could serve both diplomatic and political purposes. He is expected to visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, aiming to build on the normalization process.
At Israel’s 77th Independence Day reception at its embassy in Washington on Monday evening, Trump’s senior adviser and Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, said: “Very soon, we expect to hear many announcements related to the expansion of the Abraham Accords.”
This led to whispers that Riyadh and Jerusalem could finally be ready to officially establish ties.
Despite the lack of any formal relationship, Saudi Arabia and Israel have maintained quiet cooperation for years, particularly over shared concerns about Iran. Intelligence sharing and behind-the-scenes coordination have increased, especially regarding Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. During April 2024’s Iranian missile attacks on Israel, Saudi Arabia reportedly provided the US and Israel with intelligence, and Saudi sources said the kingdom intercepted “suspicious entities” in its airspace.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to pursue normalization with Saudi Arabia, though Israel’s ongoing conflict with Hamas and political instability have complicated that goal.
Former US president Joe Biden’s 2022 visit to Saudi Arabia yielded little progress on normalization. The trip, widely remembered for a fist bump with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), failed to deliver results. Biden’s focus on other issues, such as human rights and energy cooperation, did not produce the strategic incentives Riyadh would require to move forward with Israel.
THE MAJOR elephant in the room is Iran. Riyadh and Tehran have been at odds for years, both pushing for supremacy in the Middle East. However, after years of frosty relations, in 2023, Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shia Iran re-established diplomatic ties in a deal brokered by China.
The agreement led to continued discussions between Saudi and Iranian officials on regional issues. The move signaled a more balanced Saudi foreign policy, one that is not tied solely to the US-Israel axis. Riyadh is increasingly focused on regional stability and economic development under its Vision 2030 strategy.
At the Independence Day event in DC, Witkoff also brought up Iran, stating, “Iran will not have a nuclear weapon.” Speaking with reporters, the envoy noted progress in nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran, with a fourth round of nuclear talks between the countries likely to occur over the weekend in Oman.
“I hope we’re moving in the right direction,” Witkoff said. “The president has stated his desire to resolve this issue diplomatically if possible, and we are working toward an agreement. Efforts are now underway to coordinate a fourth round of talks.”
What stands in the way of a formal alliance with Israel?
Any agreement would affect regional power dynamics. A formal alliance between Jerusalem and Riyadh would strengthen opposition to Iran but also risk renewed tensions with the Islamic Republic.
Since the October 7 attacks, Israel and Iran have come closer to all-out war than ever before, and with Trump back in the White House, Netanyahu would feel confident in having US support over taking Tehran to task for years of attacks on Israel through its proxies: Hamas, Hezbollah, and now the Houthis of Yemen.
Saudi Arabia maintains – and has always maintained – that any normalization with Israel must involve progress on the Palestinian issue. Officials have reiterated support for a two-state solution and opposed any forced displacement from Gaza or the West Bank.
This position clashes with the makeup of Israel’s current government, which includes ministers who oppose a Palestinian state and favor settlement expansion. However, Saudi Arabia may accept limited concessions, such as a freeze on settlements or increased support for the Palestinian Authority, in exchange for US security guarantees and civilian nuclear cooperation.
THE US, protectors of the Al-Saud ruling family since the first meeting by Ibn Al Saud and then-US president Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1945, could help sweeten any deal for the Saudis.
The kingdom’s news agency, SPA, reported on Tuesday that Saudi Arabia’s cabinet announced that the country is set to discuss and sign a deal with the US in the fields of mining and mineral resources.
MBS has been determined since his rise in power to bring Saudi Arabia into the 21st century, attempting to modernize the country at the risk of alienating the religious fundamentalist factions in the country. At times, in the diplomatic field, it has seemed that his patience with the Palestinians has worn thin and that their refusal to agree to any form of a peace deal is to their own detriment.
It seems, however, that – with the war in Gaza playing a role – the crown prince has returned to his previous stance of supporting the Palestinians in the past few years.
For Israel, a deal with Saudi Arabia, the guardian of the holiest sites in the Muslim world, would represent a major diplomatic success at a time of growing international criticism due to the war against Hamas. Netanyahu has shown a willingness in the past to delay controversial policies to enable normalization with Arab states.
Domestic support for such a deal would be huge; many Israelis welcome peace with Arab neighbors as a step forward. However, Netanyahu’s popularity has plummeted since October 7 beyond his usual demographic and may be limited amid the ongoing war in Gaza and broader concerns over security.
While normalization remains possible and an intriguing addition to the region’s geopolitics, it will depend on a number of moving parts: Israel’s internal politics, Saudi Arabia’s regional calculations, Iran’s actions, and the effectiveness of US diplomacy. Any major progress will require careful negotiations and realistic compromises from all parties.
If Witkoff’s statement about the “expansion” of the accords is true, it could reshape the Middle East for years to come.