Turkey re-positions itself to influence the Middle East during Trump admin - analysis

Turkey is repositioning itself as a key regional and global power by mediating conflicts, strengthening ties across the Middle East, and aligning with the Trump administration's goals.

U.S. President Donald Trump meets with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey during the U.N. General Assembly in New York, U.S. (photo credit: KEVIN LAMARQUE)
U.S. President Donald Trump meets with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey during the U.N. General Assembly in New York, U.S.
(photo credit: KEVIN LAMARQUE)

Turkey is seeking to reposition itself as a key player in the region and globally as the new Trump administration’s policy rolls out.

US President Donald Trump has a good relationship with Turkey’s leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. He made this clear in a previous public meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

This became even clearer when Trump met with Syria’s new president, Ahmed al-Sharaa.

Sharaa is backed by Turkey. As for Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman helped lay the groundwork for the Sharaa-Trump meeting.

Turkey is now able to work with countries that it previously had problems with, such as Saudi Arabia. It is also involved in global outreach.

 A drone view shows a Turkish flag flying over Sarayburnu with the Golden Horn in the background, in Istanbul, Turkey, June 21, 2024. (credit: MURAD SEZER/REUTERS)
A drone view shows a Turkish flag flying over Sarayburnu with the Golden Horn in the background, in Istanbul, Turkey, June 21, 2024. (credit: MURAD SEZER/REUTERS)

For instance, it has positioned itself as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine, while also being seen as a friend of both these countries. Ankara is also able to work with Iran, Pakistan, and many other countries.

Syria is one of the major policy achievements for Turkey. It has rushed to shore up the new Syrian government and position itself as an early investor in the new government’s initiatives.

This will make Damascus more dependent on Turkey, enabling Ankara to get in on the ground floor in terms of infrastructure development and possible defense ties.

Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin met Sharaa on Monday during a visit to Damascus, according to reports.

Kalin met with Syria’s foreign minister and the head of Syria’s intelligence apparatus, Hussein al-Salama, Turkey’s state-run news agency Anadolu Agency reported.

According to Kurdistan24, a news channel based in the autonomous Kurdistan Region, “The meeting focused on the normalization of bilateral relations, with both parties underlining Syria’s territorial integrity, national sovereignty, and political stability as core priorities... Turkey reiterated its readiness to support the Syrian government during the country’s post-conflict recovery phase.”

Ankara is concerned about how Damascus intends to integrate the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces into its own security forces.

Turkey views the SDF as linked to the Kurdish People’s Defense Units and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which Turkey views as terrorist networks.

THERE ARE many areas in the region that Ankara wants to play a role in. It is aware that it has support among some Sunni Arabs in Lebanon.

The Trump administration's focus

Turkey also has a role to play in Libya, where there have been recent clashes. Ankara has ties with the Gulf as well, primarily via Qatar, and it also has close relations with Azerbaijan.

Most important for the Trump administration is that Ankara has offered to help mediate in the talks between Russia and Ukraine.

Solving this crisis is important to Trump, and Turkey may have a better chance of helping than the European countries. This is because Russian President Vladimir Putin has an interest in Turkey.

Erdogan’s ties with Putin include trade, given that Ankara acquired the S-400 air-defense system from Russia.

Turkey always seeks to balance its affairs so that it has ties on either side. It is part of Europe as well as being linked to Central Asia.

Ankara works with other Turkic countries and also supports Islamic causes. Turkey finds that playing both sides can result in each trusting it and becoming dependent on it as a broker.

This is also the Qatar model, which is how Doha is able to be friends with Iran and also host a US military base. Turkey is the same; it is a NATO member and also supports Hamas.

It previously sought to position itself as essential to the Trump administration’s policies. Ankara attempted to do so during the first Trump administration, despite tensions over how Turkey conducted itself in the Eastern Mediterranean and that Ankara had detained an American pastor. Sometimes, Ankara uses these methods to wring concessions.

Regarding Moscow and Kyiv, Turkey is trusted by both sides. The US has so far been unable to get the ceasefire that Trump wants.

It is possible that Ankara may have a way to get a deal done or at least help lay the foundation for face-to-face meetings between Trump, Putin, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Saudi Arabia also tried to help with these talks.

It remains to be seen what steps Turkey may take next. Israel has been wary of Ankara’s role in Syria.

Turkey is likely to want to provide Damascus with more security and defense assistance.

Notably, Ankara has another potential win up its sleeve. The PKK has said it intends to dissolve itself, ending 40 years of war with Turkey. This could enable Ankara to reduce its forces in Syria and Iraq.

Turkey is addicted to this conflict, however, and it may find it hard to suddenly reverse course. That is why Ankara is still telling Damascus it is wary of Syria working with “terrorists” in eastern Syria.