Next round of Iran-US nuclear talks could shape Tehran's retaliation strategy - analysis
Iran appears ready to retaliate if it faces too much pushback. It says this could be “proportionate,” although that leaves many options open.
Iran confirmed that it will hold a sixth round of indirect talks with the US in Oman on Sunday, June 15. This is important because the talks appeared to be stalled, and Iran is facing increased pressure from European countries regarding its nuclear program.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei said on Tuesday that the Islamic Republic and the United States will hold the newest round of talks in Muscat next Sunday, with Oman as the mediator, Iran’s state media IRNA noted.
It added that Iran’s “Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei said that Iran’s interaction and cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog is based on its commitments arising from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement.”
Iran and the US have already held five rounds of talks, alternating between Oman and Italy. Oman is mediating and hosting the talks. Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is scheduled to go to Oslo to take part in the Oslo Forum.
Iran has slammed the positions of the US, France, the UK, and Germany in terms of their role in the IAEA. It is concerned about what it sees as a possible “anti-Iran” resolution looming or that these countries will push for a “non-compliance” resolution at the upcoming IAEA Board of Governors meeting in Vienna. This is crunch time for Iran.
IRNA noted that “Iran said the Islamic Republic had taken steps in the past one or two years in cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog, but the three European countries and the United States often abused the agency for their own political purposes.”
Iran says the issue of uranium enrichment is non-negotiable. It says it has this right and claims its nuclear program is peaceful. Baqaei emphasized that "any plan that does not take into account the rights and interests of the Iranian nation, whether in the field of nuclear energy or with regard to ensuring the effective lifting of oppressive sanctions, is unacceptable to the country and shows a lack of seriousness in the negotiations.”
Meanwhile, Iran’s spokesperson for the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), Behrouz Kamalvandi, said that the Islamic Republic may reassess its level of cooperation with the IAEA if there is an anti-Iran resolution. “We have cooperated with the IAEA beyond our obligations, and if they are not grateful, we will naturally bring this cooperation to a normal level,” he said.
It is unclear what stance Russia and China have on this issue. Both are key partners of the US.
Iran seems ready to retaliate
Iran appears ready to retaliate if it faces too much pushback, saying this would be “proportionate,” although that leaves many options open. In a separate interview, Kamalvandi warned that the Islamic Republic had prepared countermeasures for the possible adoption of an anti-Iran resolution, according to IRNA.“Last time, we issued a warning, but it was ignored – and in response, we increased production of 60%-enriched uranium sevenfold,” Kamalvandi said. “This time, we also have a list of countermeasures, which we have already communicated. The agency should not expect Iran to continue constructive cooperation as before,” he added.
This is a key moment for Iran. It has followed the reports in the US carefully about President Donald Trump’s moves as well as his talks with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. It does not know if Trump is ready to be flexible.
The reports indicate that the US doesn’t want Israel to strike Iran or somehow sabotage the talks in Oman. On the other hand, it’s not clear that this is any more than the usual talk over the last decade and a half about possible “strikes” on Iran whenever tensions increase. Media reports of these threats and tensions appear to come and go.
