Against the backdrop of recent satellite images showing construction and changes at Iran’s nuclear sites, Western intelligence officials believe Tehran is using the time afforded by ongoing negotiations to make alterations that would reduce the effectiveness of any future military strike.

“While nuclear talks are taking place, and Iran keeps scheduling yet another meeting, they are exploiting the time to modify nuclear facilities in ways that could diminish the impact of a potential military strike on those sites and their outcomes,” one of the intelligence sources told The Jerusalem Post.

Foreign reports and think tanks have flagged a trend since October 2024, when Israel successfully destroyed all of Tehran’s advanced S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems. They say Iran is trying to move parts of its national security assets underground, spread out to more locations, and finish building a new nuclear facility at Natanz.

This past spring, Iran released multiple videos of underground “missile cities” and other military sites that could be used instead of ones that are currently aboveground.

Construction on the new Natanz nuclear facility built underneath a mountain even deeper underground than the Fordow facility started years ago.

Less than two months ago, however, a paper by the Institute for Science and International Security cited recent changes in the construction that appear to show a potential rushed process to finish aspects of the facility so that it can be operational sooner.

A general view of fire at an oil refinery in Birjand, Iran, December 10, 2023 (credit: MOHSEN NOFERESTI/IRNA/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)
A general view of fire at an oil refinery in Birjand, Iran, December 10, 2023 (credit: MOHSEN NOFERESTI/IRNA/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)
There is a wide-ranging debate about whether Israel could strike Iranian military assets if they were moved to this new facility.

Officials caution Iran is stalling negotiations

In recent weeks, Israeli and European officials have cautioned senior members of the US administration that Iran is deliberately stalling the negotiations. The issue was also raised in a phone call this week between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump.

“Tehran is simply buying time,” Netanyahu told Trump.

As previously reported by the Post, European officials have warned their US counterparts that Iran is dragging out the talks in an attempt to create a rift between Europe and the US over the snapback mechanism: UN Security Council sanctions on Iran that can only be reimposed until mid-October.

Under the 2015 nuclear agreement, the member states have the authority to impose broad UN Security Council sanctions on Iran through the snapback mechanism in response to major violations of Iran’s nuclear commitments. This option will no longer be available after October, the “sunset date.”

The European signatories have made it clear to Iran that if a new and “meaningful” nuclear deal is not reached by August, they will trigger this mechanism, which would result in extensive sanctions on Iran.

“The Europeans told the United States that there must be a clear timeline for the negotiations,” one of the sources told the Post. “Otherwise, the Iranians will deliberately stall to create a US-Europe confrontation in an effort to block the use of the sanctions mechanism.”

Trump expresses doubt on Iran deal

On Wednesday, Trump expressed growing doubt about the prospects of reaching a deal with Iran.“Even if they don’t reach an agreement, they won’t get nuclear weapons,” he told The New York Post. “It’s better to achieve that without a war, without people dying.”

While Trump is increasingly losing trust in the Iranians, he still believes he can bring them to the negotiating table, Western diplomats and US officials told the Post.

“Trump believes the Iranians will eventually fold,” one of the sources said.

In contrast, Israeli officials believe, and Netanyahu conveyed this to Trump, that only a credible military threat has the power to compel Iran to agree to a nuclear deal that would completely prohibit uranium enrichment. Iran adamantly opposes that position.