Facing the deadline: High stakes of US-Iran nuclear negotiations - analysis
If Trump blocks Israel from attacking Tehran's nuclear sites without resolving the threat, Jerusalem will miss a rare opportunity to eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat.
There are three clocks ticking right now regarding the Iran nuclear standoff, but only one really matters. The first is the IAEA clock of this week.
By Friday, the IAEA Board of Governors will likely vote to censure Iran for nuclear violations.
However, this is something it has done several times in recent years, with little follow-through or impact.This time it may do something larger.
It may vote to find Iran formally in violation of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
In fact, it might even refer Tehran’s nuclear violations to the UN Security Council.
If the IAEA ramps up the pressure with either of these more confrontational measures, the Islamic Republic is expected to respond with some of its own more intense retaliations.
Its response could be lighter, such as opening a new nuclear facility or a new cascade of centrifuges – or it could be more confrontational, such as pulling out of the NPT.
Deadlines for Iran nuclear deal
Next, the second clock is a mix of the Trump administration and E-3 (England, France, and Germany) deadlines for Iran to agree to a new nuclear deal.These deadlines are fuzzy and keep changing.
Originally, Trump’s deadline, was two months from mid-March to mid-May.
Since then, Trump has talked a few times about mini deadlines of demanding or expecting major progress or a deal within a few days, with none of them coming through either.
Initially, the Europeans set June as their deadline for invoking the global snapback of sanctions.That deadline has passed, so they made a new deadline for August.
The rationale for August is that it could take some weeks to activate the global snapback due to UNSC bureaucratic procedures and the need to give the Islamic Republic one last chance.
This means they would want to start the snapback process several weeks before the real deadline: October 18. This third deadline is the real one, and the only one that really counts.
As long as the Europeans start the wheels moving toward invoking the snapback, they can hold out for Iran to cut a deal almost down to the line on October 18.
If there is major progress regarding nuclear negotiations on August 30, will the Europeans really not give negotiations another week or two to see if they can avoid a conflagration with the Islamic Republic?
Meanwhile, the presentation by the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) opposition group on Tuesday of six new Iranian nuclear sites in Semnan Province, was designed to up the sense of urgency to conclude the negotiations or to free up Israel or the US to strike the Islamic Republic’s nuclear facilities.
But it is unclear how much of what they presented was new. The Iranian nuclear archive seized by the Mossad in 2018 mentioned that Iran was seeking to carry out tests in Semnan Province.
It is possible that the NCRI had some updates and more details, but it is also possible that most of what was presented was already known.
Israel is also trying to create as much of a sense of urgency as possible by talking about its concerns of Iran rebuilding its air defenses or moving assets to places where it could be harder for the IDF to strike.And these are real concerns.
Yet, Tehran cannot just easily or quickly rebuild the S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems that Israel destroyed. It took Tehran 10 years to acquire these missile systems from Russia at great cost.
Also, if they did acquire them, Jerusalem has shown that it could blow up five of them without breaking a sweat.
The concern of Iran moving nuclear assets to new locations, as discussed in foreign reports and think tank reports, is more serious in some ways, but the CIA and the Mossad have shown tremendous capabilities in following moving items from key facilities within Iran.
For example, the Mossad knew where to go to seize Iran’s nuclear files in 2018 because it followed their transfer from their old locations in 2017.
Israel's main concern
In the end, Israel’s main concern is also that the world will fail to enact the snapback in time, or worse, that with his back up against the wall of the snapback deadline, US President Donald Trump will make critical nuclear concessions to Iran, which will undermine all of Israel’s leverage from its two successful attacks on the Islamic Republic in 2024.These are the true worries and why the last deadline does matter.If the world misses the snapback deadline and loses that tool, Israel and the West will be at a much greater disadvantage in leverage vis-à-vis Iran.
And if Trump cuts a deal that blocks Israel’s ability to attack Tehran’s nuclear sites but that does not resolve the nuclear threat other than kicking the can down the road again, like the 2015 deal – Jerusalem will have missed a possible once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to close off the Iranian threat.
So while this week will see some high drama, threats, and posturing by all those involved, educated observers will be watching the real clock and the true drama, which is getting close to the point of climax.
