A Hezbollah drone was launched at Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Caesarea residence on Saturday. The Prime Minister's Office said that Netanyahu and his wife were not at the location. No casualties were reported as a result of the incident.
In an interview with Prof. Amatzia Baram, a Middle East expert, he shared insights into the security situation in the Middle East and the connections between Tehran, Hezbollah, and the ongoing conflict in Gaza. A key question raised during the conversation was whether Iran had tried to target Netanyahu amid the clashes.
According to Baram, Hezbollah's Deputy Secretary-General Naim Qassem delivered two notable speeches recently. In the first, following the assassination of Hashem Safieddine, Nasrallah's deputy, Qassem called for a ceasefire, though without ensuring it would apply to Gaza.
This surprised many, as Nasrallah typically connected the northern fighting with events in Gaza. Baram remarked, “This speech was likely not coordinated in advance with Tehran,” and said the chaos in Hezbollah following Safieddine’s assassination was evident.
A few days later, Qassem reversed his position in a second speech, aligning with Nasrallah’s statement: no ceasefire in the north as long as the fighting in Gaza continued. Baram explained, “Hezbollah was ready for a ceasefire in any case, but Iran doesn’t want to appear as if it has abandoned Hamas. Thus, they are pushing for continued fighting in the north.” He added, “Tehran changed Qassem’s position, realigning Beirut with Nasrallah.”
Baram highlighted the aftermath of Safieddine's assassination as a "critical moment" in Tehran. He noted the mysterious disappearance of Esmail Qaani, the Quds Force commander responsible for overseeing Hezbollah's operations in Lebanon.
"For days, no one knew his whereabouts, which contributed to the chaos," Baram said. Recently, Hezbollah announced the "next phase of the fighting," increasing rocket fire on Israel. Baram explained that these actions aim “to pressure Israel into agreeing to a ceasefire both in the north and in Gaza.”
Murderous intent or sending a message?
A significant question addressed was whether Iran sought to target Netanyahu directly. Baram pointed to Hezbollah's drone attack on Netanyahu’s Caesarea residence as evidence of Iran's capability to strike close to his home. “The Iranians knew the drone wouldn’t hit Netanyahu directly, but it was a symbolic message. They want to show they can reach anywhere,” Baram said.
He clarified that this was not a strategic strike, as Hezbollah did not deploy its heavy, precise missiles. “Iran is likely saving Hezbollah's strategic missiles for a larger conflict—one involving Iran directly, not just Hezbollah. These missiles serve Iran’s goals, not Hezbollah’s,” he explained.
Baram also discussed the challenges in countering Hezbollah’s drone operations. He mentioned that Hezbollah occasionally launches multiple drones at once, complicating Israel's tracking efforts. “The main challenge is early detection, especially when the drones fly at low altitudes and slow speeds,” he said. While technological solutions are being developed, Baram emphasized that the process is slow.
Despite Iran’s failure to directly harm Netanyahu, Baram concluded that their strategy remains to pressure Israel while maintaining its regional image, particularly among their allies, such as Hamas and Hezbollah, as well as the broader Arab world.