Significant blow or warning shot? What Israel achieved in Operation Days of Repentance - analysis

Last night, an Israeli fear barrier was broken. In the intricate dynamics of the Middle East, a second round of Israeli strikes in Iran appears increasingly likely. Rockets, missiles, and UAVs—either Iranian-made or Iranian-funded—are launched almost daily against Israel’s home front.

The critical question now is: What was the purpose of this strike at this particular moment, with the IDF engaged on two fronts—Gaza and Lebanon? Was it intended to degrade Iranian military production capabilities and disable launch systems? Or was it aimed at sending a deterrent message, reducing the cycle of retaliatory actions?

Iran’s response will soon clarify the situation. If Tehran’s reaction is limited to rhetoric encouraging the “Axis of Evil” to align in Lebanon and Gaza, it may signal that the political decision and military action have achieved Israel’s objectives. But if Iran retaliates directly or through proxies in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, or Lebanon, it could mean Tehran perceives Israel’s airstrikes as weak and indecisive. Such a perception, however, underscores a vital point.

One significant takeaway from this strike is a sense of weakness in America. If Israel’s Air Force undertakes additional strikes on Iran, they are likely to differ, as Iran’s defensive and offensive capabilities have been reduced, limiting the threats posed to Israeli aircraft.

This raises a core dilemma: what should the next target be? Further strikes on military sites similar to those targeted last night? Oil infrastructure? The nuclear project?

No containment from the US

Last night’s strike in Iran—and the recent one in Yemen—highlight American weakness. Middle Eastern nations and the world observe Israel as it issues threats and warnings and ultimately takes action.

Meanwhile, the United States appears weakened in its response to emerging threats, attempting to restrain Israel’s political and military leaders from more assertive actions. This perception ultimately strengthens Israel’s position, particularly with Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

In the coming days, undeniable evidence of the damage in Iran will emerge, despite Tehran’s efforts to downplay the extent of the Air Force’s success. Was “the king” exposed, or was this operation a strategic move aimed at preventing a broader escalation?