Iran weighs response to Trump's maximum pressure, risking economic turmoil - analysis

Tehran is wary of Trump's new sanctions, and it risks seeing its economy be battered - but does not want to be seen to buckle.

An Iranian woman walks past an anti-Israel banner with a picture of Iranian missiles on a street in Tehran, Iran April 19, 2024. (photo credit: MAJID ASGARIPOUR/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)
An Iranian woman walks past an anti-Israel banner with a picture of Iranian missiles on a street in Tehran, Iran April 19, 2024.
(photo credit: MAJID ASGARIPOUR/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)

Iran is weighing how to respond to US President Donald Trump’s reinstatement of a maximum-pressure campaign on the country. On Tuesday, the president signed a National Security Presidential Memorandum “restoring maximum pressure on the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran, denying Iran all paths to a nuclear weapon, and countering Iran’s malign influence abroad,” the White House said.

On Saturday, Tehran responded to the new American initiatives. The Iranian government will not submit to negotiations it considers “dishonorable,” according to Iran government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani, the country’s IRNA news agency reported. Mohajerani asserted that Tehran would continue holding talks with European countries and, “in circumstances where negotiations are dishonorable, Iran will not give in to them.”

Why Iran fears new American sanctions by Trump

Iran is wary of Trump’s new sanctions. It wants to wait, see and understand them. It also knows other countries, such as Mexico and Canada, have climbed down in the face of Washington’s threats. The Islamic Republic does not want to be seen buckling, but it also doesn’t want its economy to be battered. Tehran is already facing challenges at home, and it has also sought closer ties with Russia and China to bolster its economy.

 US President Donald Trump and Iranian missiles (illustrative) (credit: Canva, SHUTTERSTOCK)
US President Donald Trump and Iranian missiles (illustrative) (credit: Canva, SHUTTERSTOCK)

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that in the past, Iran negotiated with the US, but it had not proven wise to do so. He is likely helping to set the tone for Iran’s future moves.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has described Khamenei’s talking points as “instructive.” This means that while he may want to engage in talks, he is now wary of the wrath of the supreme leader. Yet the minister has also called the remarks “path-opening.” This means there is room to maneuver.

IRNA noted that Khamenei referred to Iran’s past experience in negotiating a comprehensive deal with six world countries in 2015 – including the United States – and said Washington had failed to uphold its obligations under that agreement. Khamenei said Iran was not opposed to negotiations per se and that it was involved in negotiations with all countries in the world. He said Iran’s Foreign Ministry was “one of the busiest foreign ministries... conducting negotiations with and trips to countries all over the world.”

The Foreign Ministry says it is guided in future talks by several principles, including “dignity, prudence, and expediency.” The supreme leader has called past interactions with the US “dishonorable.”