There is a real danger that US President Donald Trump could agree to a mediocre nuclear deal with Iran, multiple top Israeli sources have told The Jerusalem Post.
If Trump does agree to such a deal, some of the sources are deeply concerned that the president may circumscribe the IDF’s current unique opportunity to strike the Islamic Republic.
Israel had a 'special window' to strike Iran's nuclear program
Top Israeli officials have said since October 26 that there was a special window for the air force to strike Tehran’s nuclear program since Israeli fighter jets had eliminated all of its S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems.
While Iran still has weaker anti-aircraft systems, they are presumed to be no match for the air force’s advanced fighter jets, which, in any event, bested the S-300 systems in October.
In addition, Israeli officials have noted that, currently, neither Hezbollah nor Hamas are serious retaliatory threats for Iran against Israel, given that both adversaries are themselves severely weakened.
For months, there have been high hopes from top Israeli officials that Trump would green-light a major Israeli airstrike on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, potentially even in the earlier months of 2025 that have already passed.
Given the Iranians’ known negotiating positions and Trump’s own mixed statements ranging from opening the gates of hell on Tehran to pushing hard for a deal, some Israeli sources believe that Trump’s readiness to negotiate now makes a mediocre deal more likely.
Other sources are still optimistic that, behind the scenes, Trump understands that a deal will not solve the Iran nuclear problem and that an Israeli attack will eventually be necessary or that somehow he will intimidate the Iranians into a much better nuclear deal than the 2015 version.
Virtually all sources agree that there will be major developments over the course of April on the nuclear file, though it is possible that having a final understanding of the direction of Trump’s Iran policy could extend into the summer.
England, Germany, and France have given Tehran a June deadline for progress on the nuclear standoff before they would be ready to invoke global snapback sanctions under the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.
Trump has not been discussing that possibility as much, but it is known that he likes sanctions as a coercive tool, given that much of his first-term Iran policy was based on sanctions.
Negotiations between Iran, US due to start Saturday
Negotiations between Iran and the US are due to start Saturday in Oman, though the sides are still fighting over whether the negotiators will be direct or indirect with Oman as a mediator.
The last serious nuclear negotiations between Iran, the US, and any mediators took place in late 2023 before Hamas’s October 7 invasion.
After the massacre, the Biden administration did not view negotiations as politically viable.
Upon entering office, the Biden administration had said it was committed to renewing the 2015 nuclear deal that Trump had helped unravel during his first term after a 2018 Mossad operation revealed a variety of Iranian lies regarding its nuclear program.
There were multiple times when it seemed that the Biden administration was close to a new deal with Iran, including in the summer of 2022, but each time, either the Iranians refused to sign at the last second or some external event, such as Iran providing drones to Russia against Ukraine and NATO, derailed the talks.