US President Donald Trump’s approach to the direct talks between Iran and the United States over Iran’s nuclear program could lead to dangerous consequences, Dr. Benny Sabti, a senior Iran researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), told Maariv on Monday.
Sabti harshly criticizes Trump’s optimistic remarks, arguing that, “He made a very big mistake by already calling the talks good,” saying this signals weakness and could strengthen Iran’s position.
While Iran seeks sanctions relief, the reality is more complicated. “It’s important to emphasize that the United States isn’t even talking about easing sanctions yet. It’s actually imposing more sanctions, and that’s what really infuriates the Iranians and raises their suspicions about the negotiations,” Sabti explained.
The danger, he said, lies in a potential future lifting of sanctions: “If the sanctions are really lifted, Iran could trade with many countries. Even partial relief could open the door to major waves of import and export and a drop in foreign currency rates. This could result in a very sudden and critical shift in favor of the Iranian economy – ultimately strengthening the regime.”
One of the more troubling aspects of the emerging draft agreement is that it does not include the full dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear program. Sabti strongly criticized this direction: “Trump, at least at this stage, seems to be leading toward the same agreement that was reached in 2014–2015: the one he himself pulled out of. That’s a huge loss; it’s a bit foolish.”
Wrong approach to diplomacy?
The core issue, in his view, is the Western approach: “When you leave them with a little, they become bold and eventually want it all, not just a portion,” he said. “It also signals a certain kind of Western weakness. If you leave me with a bit, it means you can leave me with more. You have to talk to them in terms of all or nothing – and even be willing to go to war.”
The involvement of Oman as a mediator has special significance, Sabti explained: “Oman has had very good ties with Iran for decades, even before the revolution. It’s convenient for both sides – and also geographically close to Iran. You can quickly jump over for consultations and return.”
Regarding disagreements within the Iranian parliament, the Iran expert shed light on what’s happening behind the scenes: “The Iranian parliament hasn’t been an independent body for many years – perhaps since the 1990s. It has no real standing of its own. The discourse there is all just one big show. The Iranian regime is trying to put on an act [to show] that it’s struggling to compromise.”
Sabti circled back to Trump’s optimistic comments and spoke critically: “I think he made a very big mistake by already calling the talks good. That’s not true at all. You can’t possibly know what happened during the two hours of talks. How can you expect to reach results in two-hour rounds of talks each week?”
The result, he warns, could be disastrous: “The Iranians will feel they can accelerate their nuclear plans without conceding to the Americans. That’s not good at all. The Americans will pay the price – and so will we – for this naivety.”
More broadly, the implications of the current negotiations extend beyond US-Iran relations to the entire Middle East. Strengthening the Iranian regime could become “a threat to the region, to us, to Saudi Arabia,” Sabti said, especially when “we haven’t even gotten anything in return yet.”