A blunder for the history books: How was Tehran so ill-prepared for war with Israel? - analysis
Iran’s failure to understand the war it was entering into is a historic failure.
Iran was caught by surprise when Israel carried out strikes in the early morning hours of Friday. Now the war is in its fourth day, and Iran continues to be taken by surprise and is unable to respond to the attacks. Why is Iran reeling so much from a war that was long discussed, and a war that Iran itself threatened?
The day before Israel’s attacks, the Iranian head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hossein Salami, had said that Iran was “fully prepared” for any scenario. How could he have gotten things so wrong? Was Iran prepared? It certainly doesn’t appear to have been prepared.
Salami was killed in the first Israeli strikes, along with other key commanders. Although Iran replaced the commanders quickly, it took hours for it to get its ballistic missiles ready for launch. Over the last four days, Iran has much of its missile arsenal and the launchers needed to fire them.
Iran's missile arsenal
This is a major blow to Iran. Without the ballistic missiles, Iran doesn’t seem to have a good way to strike at Israel.Iran likely had thousands of missiles capable of reaching Israel. It has increased the type and quality of these missiles over the years. Some of these missiles could also be sent to Iranian-backed militias in Iraq to be launched at Israel. However, Iran still has a limited number of long-range missiles. As some of the depots and stocks of the missiles are destroyed, the numbers dwindle. As the launchers are eliminated, it is harder to position them for launch.
Russia has used missiles and Iranian-style drones for attacks on Ukraine, and Russia has not won the war. Iran also has its drone arsenal for attacks on Israel. These are relatively small drones, and they also do not appear to pose a major threat.
Most Iranian drones have been shot down on the way to Israel. Even if Iran has thousands of them, it appears the drones’ wings have been clipped.
Iran’s failure to understand the war it was entering into is a historic failure. Iran had threatened to destroy Israel for years. However, it didn’t seem to have worked out how to do this.
Losing an 'in' to Israel
Once Israel weakened Hezbollah in 2024, Iran didn’t change its calculations. Hezbollah was supposed to provide it a front line with Israel, part of a multi-front war that included Hamas, the Houthis and other groups, such as militias in Iraq. Without the Hezbollah front, Iran had fewer options.When the Assad regime fell on December 8, 2024, Iran lost another key ally in the region. Without Assad and Hezbollah, Iran has no direct border with Israel. Iran has tried to place proxy groups in the West Bank, and it backed the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7. However, Hamas is weaker, and the proxy groups in the West Bank, such as Palestinian Islamic Jihad, are weaker as well. Iran has also tried to threaten Israel via Jordan. However, it has not succeeded.
Iran has a relatively weak navy and air force. These cannot confront Israel. Iran’s army may be large, but it can’t get to Israel.
During the Iran-Iraq war, Iran was also taken by surprise by Saddam Hussein’s invasion in 1980. Iran relied on human wave attacks and attrition to defeat the superior Iraqi army. It also carried out what was called the “war of the cities,” attacking Iraqi cities, as it has now done to Israel. It also attacked ships in the Persian Gulf. However, Israel is not Iraq. It is not a frontline state with Iran. Iran can’t rely on its strategic depth and manpower.
Israel understood the Iranian threat and planned for it. Iran was called a “third circle” threat. Along with Hezbollah, Iran was seen as the major enemy.
Israel overestimated Iran
While Israel underestimated Hamas, it overestimated Iran and planned how to defeat the regime. It also carried out the campaign between the wars in Syria to weaken Iran’s efforts to move weapons to Syria and Hezbollah between 2015 and 2024. When Assad fell, Iran’s arm in Syria collapsed.Iran’s failure to understand this war is not unique in history. Countries have walked into wars in the past and been surprised by their enemies. For instance, Mexico’s Santa Anna lost out to both the Texas War of Independence and the US-Mexico War in the 19th century. Santa Anna’s arrogance led to defeat. In addition, Spain entered the Spanish-American War in 1898, assuming it could also withstand the US Navy and armed forces. It was surprising when the US defeated the Spanish navy and army in Cuba and the Philippines.
There are other examples. Perhaps the most pertinent to our situation is the historic Persian Empire, with often overestimated in its strength. It was defeated by the Greeks several times. The worst came when Alexander of Macedon conquered the Persian Empire and chased its leader to Bactria in Central Asia in the 4th century BC. Iran is not the modern Persian Empire, but it has aspects of the arrogance of Darius III, the Persian leader who lost to Alexander.
The war with Iran now enters a new stage as Iran’s missile and drone force is weakened. Iran could hold on and continue to fight. Israel can’t bring an army to Tehran. Iran could also ask for a deal, or Iran’s regime may be weakened from within.
Wars are not usually won solely from the air. There are exceptions. In 1999, the US and NATO were able to defeat the Serbs in Kosovo using largely air power. However, there were options for a ground invasion if the air campaign failed. The US and a large coalition of countries largely defeated Saddam’s army in 1991 using air power, and then a short ground campaign. However, air power didn’t bring the Nazis victory against England during the Battle of Britain. Air power alone is not always enough.
The question for Iran is why it failed to understand the modern battlefield. Didn’t it see that its drones have not won Russia the war in Ukraine? Drones and missiles don’t win wars. Why did Iran think it could deter Israel after threatening Israel for so long? Did it think the US or others would get Israel to call off an attack? Was Iran so used to being the one threatening that it didn’t think anyone else could threaten Iran? In the history of war, Iran’s blunder appears to be one for the record books.
