“What I feared has come upon me; what I dreaded has happened to me.” (Job 3:25)
The catastrophe that befell the people of Israel on the morning of Simhat Torah was the realization of one of the country’s worst nightmares: untold numbers of Israelis – including grandparents, children, and entire families – abducted by Hamas and spirited across the border following an unprecedented invasion by land, air, and sea in which hundreds of Israelis were killed and wounded.
The footage of hundreds of Hamas terrorists breaking through the border fence between Gaza and Israel at numerous points and entering Israeli territory to murder, maim, and kidnap Israelis; of Hamas gunmen riding pickup trucks through the streets of Israeli towns and going house by house to seek out victims; of young people who had participated in an all-night dance party running screaming through the Israeli desert with Hamas terrorists in pursuit; of Israeli civilians, including elderly people and mothers with children, paraded through the streets of Gaza as locals chant “allahu akbar” – they all seem too hellish, too ghastly to be real.
And yet, they are.
Israel's greatest military and intelligence failure
The events of Saturday morning represent Israel’s greatest military and intelligence failure in half a century – if not in the 75 years of the country’s existence.
As I write this, more than 250 Israelis have been confirmed dead and some 1,500 wounded in the unprecedented terrorist assault. Both numbers are certain to rise. The number of Israelis – both civilians and soldiers – taken hostage by Hamas has not been confirmed, but it is expected to be staggeringly high.
It is difficult to grasp the enormity of this disaster and the effect it is likely to have on Israel, but another devastating surprise attack may help us understand the magnitude of what we are currently experiencing.
The attacks of September 11, 2001 changed a nation and shaped a generation of Americans. It altered the way people live their lives and go about everyday activities, shattered many Americans’ sense of security, and plunged America into a war on terror that is ongoing to this day.
At the time of the 9/11 attacks, America’s population was about 285 million. 2,977 people were murdered in the terror attacks in New York, Washington, and Pennsylvania – roughly 0.001% of all Americans. The airwaves, the papers, and the Internet were filled with stories of the dead – it felt as though every American knew someone who lost someone or whose life had somehow been directly affected.
Israel’s population is roughly 9.7 million. The 200 people confirmed dead thus far in Saturday’s terror attack represent more than 0.002% of all Israelis – a proportion of Israel’s population that is double that of Americans killed in 9/11.The stories have already started pouring in: the young people murdered at the desert party; the local mayor killed in a gun battle; the fire chief and his deputy executed in their hometown. They will build to a deluge in the days ahead – the faces of those killed, the families shattered, the communities in mourning.
It is too soon to say what effect the events of this weekend will have on our lives, but it is certain to be profound and lasting. We are likely in for a military campaign the likes of which we haven’t seen in decades, as Israel seeks to rescue its kidnapped citizens and deal Hamas and its leadership a devastating blow. The price Hamas is likely to demand for the return of the hostages – alive or dead – may tear the country apart.
The decision of Israel's enemies decides Israel's future
A decision by Hezbollah or its overlords in Iran to join the warfare and launch an offensive in Israel’s North may plunge the country and the region into all-out war. Israel’s neighbors will be calculating and reassessing their views of Israel’s military prowess and may calibrate their approach to the Jewish state accordingly. The country’s security doctrine will need to be overhauled and its capabilities adjusted to address the threat posed by Hamas and its fellow terrorist groups. At the same time, a political realignment precipitated by the formation of an emergency unity government may impact domestic politics for years to come.
And the effect this will have on our collective psyche and our shared consciousness, on our very sense of security and our confidence in our ability to live freely and securely in this land – it will be felt for decades if not generations.
The full scope of the catastrophe is, as yet, unknown, but one thing is clear: the events of October 7, 2023 – one of the darkest days in the country’s history – will change everything.
This is Israel’s 9/11. Nothing will ever be the same.