The current scene of chaos in the Middle East is not unfamiliar, in light of what has been happening in the past two decades.
However, the chaos has reached its peak, and its features and parties have become more obvious than ever before. Iran and its proxies and terrorist arms are rapidly opening new fronts. This is no longer limited to Israeli and American targets. We witnessed the recent venture of striking targets inside Pakistan. Islamabad expressed anger over the violation of its sovereignty and responded strongly and swiftly to the reckless Iranian behavior.
There is undoubtedly a clear conflict between, on one side, Iran and its proxies, and on the other, the US and Israel. This conflict is likely to escalate in the near future, especially as Abdul-Malik Al Houthi’s special operations targeting key figures in the Revolutionary Guard intensify, causing significant discomfort to the Iranians.
The killing of five prominent advisers to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in Syria is another intelligence blow with serious implications. It reflects the extent of exposure of the movements of Revolutionary Guard leaders to surveillance operations carried out by Israeli intelligence agencies. Simultaneously, it underscores the weakness and inadequacy of Iranian intelligence capabilities. This is not the first operation of its kind. It follows repeated security breaches within Iran. All these incidents confirm that Iran’s primary weakness lies in its intelligence capabilities, possibly due to Israel’s technological superiority in monitoring, surveillance, and tracking.
Recurring intelligence breaches over the past years, specifically targeting Iranian sites and individuals assumed to have high levels of protective measures repeatedly indicate undiscovered or challenging-to-address security vulnerabilities. This is not easy for the Iranian side. Repeated Israeli targeting of Iranian figures in Syria may reduce Iranian presence, at least at the leadership levels, which have proven difficult to protect adequately.
Iran wants to convey a message that it can ignite or calm the Middle East
Israeli strikes against high-ranking Iranian figures can contribute to deterring the Iranian regime and its proxies. The leadership of the regime and its militias prioritize their survival above all else. Their survival symbolizes victory, resilience, and other slogans. The opposite is entirely true.
There undoubtedly will be rapid security reviews to consolidate the exposed leaders targeted by Israel, whether in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, or the Palestinian territories.
We do not believe that Israeli Mossad strikes in this regard are directly related to what is happening in Gaza. There is likely a plan to respond to Iran and attempt to counter its increasing threats, especially regarding the behaviors of militia arms that have sought to target Israel during the Gaza war.
What is clear now is an indirect war between Iran and Israel. Iran’s role in supporting militias with weapons, equipment, and in planning and executing attacks is no longer hidden. The cover has been lifted, or at least most of it, with Iranian officials openly boasting about supplying weapons, equipment, and training to Hamas. There is a treasure trove of information and secrets in this regard, in the possession of the US, which has kept silent about Iran’s role for years, perhaps with the hope of reviving the nuclear deal or avoiding responsibility for responding to Iranian threats.
A prime example of this is the US position towards the Houthi militia, which the Biden administration rushed to remove from the terrorism list. Washington tried in various ways to persuade it to cease its chaotic and disruptive behavior. However, it soon realized its miscalculation when it found this militia obstructing global trade and targeting Israeli and American interests. This prompted the US to immediately change its stance, putting the Houthi militia back on the terrorism list and dealing with it militarily.
What is happening in the Red Sea has no connection to the war in Gaza, as the Houthis and the Iranians claim. What is happening is that they are employing this war to achieve Iranian strategic goals – to gain more regional influence, demonstrate the ability to threaten maritime security, and pressure to reduce the US naval presence in the Gulf and the Gulf of Aden. Iran sees this region as an exclusive sphere of influence.
The key point is that Iran wants to convey a message that it can ignite or calm the Middle East, and it is a major player that cannot be ignored. The current rapid escalation cannot be understood apart from the plans and proposals circulating about the fate of Gaza. Iran does not want to see a retreat or final exclusion of one of its key proxies, Hamas.
The absence of Hamas from all “day after” discussions is bad news for Iran. Iran realizes that losing one of its arms may pave the way for losing the rest. An Iran without Hamas is like a Lebanon without Hezbollah and a Yemen without the Houthis.
The writer is a UAE political analyst and former Federal National Council candidate.