Iran’s nuclear weapons program has reached a critical stage. The regime is now only a few days away from having sufficient weapons-grade uranium (90%) to build several nuclear warheads, and leaders of the Islamic Republic have begun openly hinting at a shift in Iran’s nuclear doctrine.
The pressing question is: What immediate measures can the United States, the European Union, and Israel take to prevent the regime from achieving nuclear weapons, especially given the limited time and the urgency of the task? Although the situation is perilous, there are viable strategies to prevent the most severe outcomes.
Iran has accelerated the production and operation of centrifuges to enrich uranium at higher levels, creating the type of fuel used for nuclear bombs. According to the latest assessment by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), as of October 26, 2024, Iran’s stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% purity has reached 182.3 kilograms. If further enriched to 90% purity, this amount could produce up to five nuclear warheads.
Iran has also restricted the UN watchdog’s ability to monitor key facilities, both via technology and in physical inspections. As a result, the IAEA has lost the capability to detect whether Iran is diverting nuclear material, equipment, or other resources to undeclared sites, further complicating verification efforts. This is extremely concerning because the regime has previously demonstrated its ability to secretly relocate manufacturing equipment to undisclosed locations.
Intelligence reports indicate that Iranian scientists at civilian research institutes have been conducting nuclear “weaponization” work, including limited computer modeling and metallurgy experiments, which could expedite Iran’s production of nuclear weapons.
Imminent nuclear breakout
A report issued by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) to the US Congress concludes that the Islamic Republic has “undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device.”
More concerning is the notable increase in public statements by regime officials regarding changes to Iran’s nuclear doctrine and its potential withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
Kamal Kharrazi, a political adviser to Ayatollah Khamenei, recently announced that Iran may change its nuclear doctrine and develop long-range ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
During a meeting with a group of students, Khamenei was asked whether he would consider changing the nuclear doctrine and issuing a secondary fatwa on nuclear weapons. He responded, “Everyone should know that in this struggle, every necessary military armament and political action for the readiness of the Iranian nation will be undertaken, and the authorities are already engaged in such efforts.”
In the absence of cooperation, the IAEA Board of Governors passed a resolution demanding that the Islamic Republic urgently improve its cooperation with the agency and requested a “comprehensive” report to pressure the regime into renewed nuclear negotiations. However, the regime reacted defiantly, announcing that it would install more advanced centrifuges and expand nuclear infrastructure.
The situation is critical. With the regime perceiving a loss of deterrence in the region, particularly through Hezbollah and its other regional proxies – and now finding itself in a significantly weaker position compared to Israel and the US – it may choose to pursue the nuclear option. Countering this requires urgent action and a coordinated response.
Given these developments, the limited time available, and the urgency of the situation, there are several immediate measures that the US, the EU, and Israel can take to prevent the regime from reaching a nuclear breakout point.
Before anything else, Western powers must understand that time is of the utmost importance. The regime is dangerously close to producing its first nuclear warhead, and the West must not waste time on negotiating. The “talk-for-talk’s-sake” approach is part of the regime’s deliberate strategy to stall and drag out the process until it achieves nuclear breakout.
Next, President-elect Donald Trump must put the regime on notice that if it further escalates, it will face severe consequences. Washington should present the Islamic regime with a credible threat of military action and, to ensure that it perceives the threat as credible, a shift in the US defense posture in the Middle East is necessary.
Then, the US must trigger the snapback mechanism of United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231, designed to reimpose sanctions on the regime if it violates its commitments under the nuclear agreement. October 18, 2025, will be the last opportunity for world powers to initiate the snapback mechanism, but the US and European countries should not wait until the last moment; they must act now.
President Trump should restore his maximum pressure campaign as soon as he re-enters the White House, and he must pressure China to stop buying oil from Iran.
Invoking the snapback mechanism would not only cripple the Islamic regime’s economy, it would also automatically restore restrictions on the sale or transfer of conventional arms to and from Iran, regardless of whether the original sunset clause for the embargo had already expired.
This would prevent the regime from purchasing advanced arms from Russia and China.In November 2023, Tehran and Moscow signed an agreement for Iran to purchase military aircraft from Russia, including Su-35 fighter jets, Mi-28 attack helicopters, and Yak-130 combat trainer aircraft. If finalized, this deal would significantly improve Iran’s air capabilities, making the Islamic Republic a more potent hybrid military actor in the region. Invoking the snapback mechanism would also prevent the regime from selling locally produced weapons to neighboring countries, which currently brings in much-needed revenue.
Moreover, The US, European countries, and Israel must actively support regime change in Iran.
The regime is facing a serious legitimacy crisis, and the environment is ripe for change in the country. There is widespread frustration over social restrictions, outrage over corruption and mismanagement, economic collapse, and growing anger toward Khamenei and his regime, which have shown little regard for the needs of the people.
On several occasions, notably in late 2022 and early 2023, Iranians from various sectors of society took to the streets, calling for a regime change. The government was able to brutally crackdown on protesters, but they remain a fire smoldering beneath the ashes and waiting for the right opportunity – and for support from the West to rise again.
The West should proactively coordinate efforts to strengthen political opposition in the Islamic Republic, enhance direct assistance for human rights activists, and speak out more forcefully in support of a free Iran. The regime has blocked Iranians’ access to free Internet and the US must help Iranians circumvent Internet censorship.
There are more measures that the US and Israel can adopt, such as targeting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the regime’s lifeline for exporting terrorism. Targeting the IRGC’s top leadership, using cyber warfare to disrupt its command-and-control systems, and sabotaging its military bases should be high on the list.
European countries must designate the IRGC as a foreign terrorist organization, not least because of its role in arming Russia against Ukraine, a European nation.
Time is of the essence. The regime in Tehran is dangerously close to producing its first nuclear warhead, and the West must avoid falling into its “talk-for-talk’s-sake” trap. Decisive and meaningful action is needed to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
Allowing the regime to acquire these weapons would enable it to intensify its destructive actions and expand its campaign of terrorism in the region and beyond.This must be prevented at all costs.
The writer is a senior fellow at the Philos Project.