As the clock ticks toward President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House, his national security and intelligence team appointments are emerging as a cadre of experienced strategists prepared to confront an increasingly volatile world. 

Names like Michael Waltz (national security advisor), Tulsi Gabbard (director of national intelligence), Sebastian Gorka (counterterrorism advisor), John Ratcliffe (CIA director), Tom Homan (border security chief), Kash Patel (FBI director ), Kristi Noem (homeland security secretary) and Pete Hegseth (defense secretary) headline this formidable roster, each bringing a wealth of expertise and a nuanced understanding of Tehran’s destabilizing role in global security.

The team’s collective knowledge of Iran’s influence as the epicenter of Islamic terrorism in the Middle East positions it to tackle a range of geopolitical challenges. Yet, the question looms: Is this team equipped to navigate the intricacies of Iran’s hybrid warfare tactics, asymmetric threats, and expanding transnational terrorism networks? 

A clear and present danger

The challenges facing Trump’s intelligence team are both immediate and severe. Iran’s leadership has openly signaled its hostility, with figures such as Iraj Masjedi, a senior Quds Force commander, issuing explicit death threats against Trump. These declarations are more than rhetoric – they highlight the regime’s capacity and willingness to act through a network of sleeper cells and lone operatives linked to the IRGC, Quds Force, and Iran’s MOIS (Ministry of Intelligence Service). These actors remain active within US borders and along strategic points in the Latin American corridor, exploiting vulnerabilities in transnational security systems.

Recent assassination plots, although thwarted, underscore the urgency of the threat. Such incidents have compelled US security agencies to enhance protective measures, demonstrating the evolving nature of Iran’s asymmetric warfare tactics. For Trump’s intelligence team, the dual task of safeguarding the former president and ensuring the nation’s broader security represents a significant operational challenge, requiring an unprecedented level of interagency coordination and strategic foresight.

Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Trump participates in a ''Fighting Anti-Semitism in America Event'' in Washington (credit: REUTERS)
Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Trump participates in a ''Fighting Anti-Semitism in America Event'' in Washington (credit: REUTERS)

Geopolitical complexity

While domestic threats demand immediate attention, the broader geopolitical landscape offers no respite. Tehran’s aggressive regional interventions continue to destabilize the Middle East, undermining efforts to maintain a fragile balance of power. Despite initiatives by Persian Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE to de-escalate tensions, the Iranian regime’s actions reveal a persistent agenda of regional hegemony, emboldened by strategic alliances with global powers, namely China and Russia.

This partnership not only strengthens Tehran’s military capabilities but also complicates the international response to its provocations. For Trump’s intelligence team, navigating this volatile landscape requires more than traditional diplomacy – it demands a sophisticated understanding of the Islamic Republic’s hybrid strategies, from proxy warfare to economic manipulation. Managing the implications of Tehran’s belligerent behavior while safeguarding regional stability will be one of the most critical tests of their strategic acumen and ability to counterbalance Iran’s ambitions.

The nuclear bomb puzzle

Central to the Iranian challenge is its relentless pursuit of nuclear weapons, which poses a direct threat not only to Israel but to global stability. Tehran’s ambitions, coupled with its history of deception and brinkmanship, necessitate a proactive and strategic response. Trump’s intelligence team, in collaboration with Israel’s Mossad, must meticulously monitor and counter these efforts, leveraging real-time intelligence to disrupt Iran’s progress toward weaponization.

Despite the weakening of Iranian terrorist proxies such as Hamas and Hezbollah, the risk of direct conflict remains palpable. Tehran’s ability to exploit regional instability and its capacity for asymmetric retaliation further complicate the situation. For specialized units like the CIA’s Counterterrorism Center (CTC) or Counterproliferation Center (CPC), thwarting Iran’s nuclear aspirations will require not only tactical precision but also a comprehensive strategy to address the regime’s broader proliferation network. Ensuring that Iran’s nuclear ambitions are neutralized before they reach an irreversible stage is not just a priority – it is an imperative for global security.

The domestic front

On American soil, the challenges for agencies such as the FBI and DHS are equally urgent and multifaceted. Iranian-backed cyberattacks are escalating in both frequency and sophistication, targeting critical infrastructure and sowing digital chaos. However, the more insidious threat lies in sleeper cells and lone-wolf operatives embedded within US borders. These actors, directly linked to Tehran’s intelligence apparatus, represent an ongoing risk of assassination plots, physical violence, and targeted disruptions.

Adding to the complexity are pro-Iran lobbyists operating within US think tanks, Persian-language media outlets, and academic institutions. These groups actively work to influence American policy and political discourse, often cloaking their agendas in the guise of legitimate advocacy. Their activities amplify Tehran’s propaganda and seek to erode US strategic interests from within. For Trump’s intelligence team, countering these domestic threats demands an agile, multi-pronged approach that integrates counterintelligence operations, cyber-defense strategies, and enhanced interagency collaboration to safeguard national security.

Support for Iran’s opposition

A critical question facing Trump’s intelligence team is whether it will meaningfully support Iran’s opposition movements. Figures such as Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi present a prominent and credible alternative to the regime, yet US support for opposition groups has often been inconsistent, wavering between active engagement and strategic caution.

The stakes are high. Backing the real opposition voices could amplify the ongoing protests and strengthen the Iranian people’s push against Khamenei’s oppressive regime. However, such support must go beyond rhetoric. Will Trump’s team take decisive action, for instance purging US-funded Persian media of regime-affiliated reformists and countering Tehran’s propaganda networks that aim to sow discord and misinformation?

These measures could serve as powerful tools to delegitimize the regime on a global stage and bolster grassroots dissent within Iran. By aligning US policy with the aspirations of the Iranian people, Trump’s team has an opportunity to weaken Tehran’s grip and lay the groundwork for a freer, more stable Middle East. 

A unified strategy

Trump’s intelligence team confronts the formidable challenge of crafting a cohesive, multi-layered strategy to counter the Iranian threat. While outright regime change may not be an explicit policy objective, the team’s actions and decisions will undeniably influence the trajectory of Iran’s role in the region. Achieving this requires addressing multiple dimensions: supporting the aspirations of the Iranian people, countering Tehran’s malign influence, and neutralizing the regime’s nuclear ambitions.

Success will demand unprecedented interagency coordination, strategic foresight, and a steadfast commitment to long-term objectives. Balancing immediate security threats with the broader goal of regional stability is no small task, particularly in the face of Tehran’s hybrid warfare tactics, its transnational terrorist networks, and its ambitions for regional hegemony.

As Trump prepares to assume office, the stakes for US national security and global stability could not be higher. Tehran’s rogue behavior remains unchecked, its threats unabated. For Trump’s team, the challenge extends beyond managing immediate crises. It involves laying the groundwork for a sustainable, forward-looking strategy that not only counters the regime’s aggression but also fosters peace and security – both within the United States and across the Middle East.

Whether this ambitious task is met will hinge on the team’s ability to navigate the complexities of the Iranian threat with precision, courage, and an unwavering commitment to democratic ideals and freedom. The world will be watching.

IRAN IS engulfed in multi-layered crises, and the 86-year-old dictator can no longer suppress public discontent, even through force. However, the historic opportunity to dismantle the Tehran regime may never arise again for Trump and Netanyahu. Optimistically, the regime change is at least a consideration in their strategic thinking; otherwise, as long as this brutal regime and its cancerous influence remain in power, the idea of achieving lasting peace in the Middle East will remain unattainable. Khamenei’s regime resembles a fragile spider’s web – unstable, weak, and unable to withstand the inevitable forces of change.

The writer is a counterterrorism analyst and Middle East studies researcher based in Washington, with a particular focus on Iran and ethnic conflicts in the region. His most recent book is The Black Shabbat, published in the US. You can follow him at erfanfard.com and on X @EQFARD.