Syria is no longer Syria but rather an integral part of the emerging Ottoman Empire. A similar case was seen with Iraq, which, since the American withdrawal and until very recently, was, de facto, an extension of the Islamic Republic of Iran. This regional development is fundamentally different from how it is perceived in the global public opinion and general perception: It is not only relevant to the countries of the Middle East but is also symptomatic of a broader war of radical Islam against the enlightened world.
Within this context, the recent revolution in Syria cannot be merely seen as the strengthening of Ahmed al-Shaara’s Islamist rebels against Assad’s regime; rather, it should also be seen as Turkey’s exploitation of a prime opportunity (created mainly by the blows Israel inflicted on the Shi’ite axis) for the enhancement of its influence and power.
The developments in Syria are also a reflection of the titanic struggle between Shi’ite Islam, led by the Islamic Republic of Iran, and Sunni Islam, led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Turkey and funded by Qatar, with each axis pulling in its direction, seeking to conquer as much territory and natural resources as possible. In competing to establish an Islamic caliphate based on Sharia law, each side is working vigorously to create Islamist cells in a long list of geographical targets in the West, including the US, Canada, Europe, and Australia.
The product of this thorough and systematic work, facilitated in recent decades by both Sunni and Shi’ite forces, has been particularly noticeable since October 7. It can be seen in many Western cities in the form of demonstrations against the state, violence against locals, and the holding of mass Muslim prayers in public places, for example.
Turkey is, for now, the big winner from the latest campaign in Syria. Erdogan, who leads it, is also the architect of an alternative energy transport route to Iran, which will shorten and reduce the cost of energy to Europe and the West by leveraging his influence in the bloc of Turkic states (Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, etc.) and in Syria, as well as through his recent strengthening of ties with Saudi Arabia.
Erdogan wants an empire
Erdogan intends to create a route that will anchor his supremacy and prompt those in the region and in the West to be dependent upon purchasing cheaper energy from Ankara.
This will, indeed, materialize, unless the Israeli-Saudi-American union will be signed, in which case the route may render Syria (and hence Turkey) irrelevant as Israel will take its place in the creation of an alternative cheaper route to the one already in existence and led by the Islamic Republic of Iran. Erdogan, a disciple and supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood movement, understands this dynamic and will therefore do anything to prevent the Israeli-Saudi alliance from being cemented.
Moreover, both the current Sunni radical leadership in Turkey and the Shi’ite radical leadership in the Islamic Republic of Iran understand the symbolism Jerusalem has for the Muslim world, and hence both leaderships frequently declare their intentions to “liberate” it from the Zionist infidels.
Erdogan’s successes, through the Sunni rebels in Syria, have only increased his appetite to expand his empire, which also includes minimizing the Kurdish threat of autonomy in northeastern Syria. His actions against the Kurds, for example, are currently underway without any signs of opposition from the “enlightened” world.
Turkey’s membership in NATO significantly amplifies the magnitude of the threat posed to Israel and highlights the need for sophisticated and meaningful Israeli action, such as impressing upon the new US administration the magnitude and repercussions of Ankara’s aspirations.
The real war, that of radical Islam against the enlightened world, should be perceived as a serious concern to the US administration. It threatens the stability of Western nations, as well as many countries in the Middle East including Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE. The crushing of one axis will necessarily lead to the rise of the other, as was demonstrated when the United States led a successful international coalition against ISIS in Iraq and Syria.
In doing so, it laid the groundwork for the rise of the Shi’ite axis, led by the Islamic Republic of Iran and its proxies. A similar result can be expected when the much-needed action will be taken against Iran, as a result of its nuclear program.
Hence, if and when the Trump administration strikes Iran, it must not take its eyes off the radical Sunni axis for a moment, despite (and perhaps even because of) the fact that those who lead it, both Turkey and Qatar, are partners of the US, who simultaneously strive for its demise.
The writer is a fellow of the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy, a former member of Knesset, and a past deputy ambassador to Egypt.