Algeria’s deepening entanglement with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) ought to send tremors through Western capitals, yet the response thus far has been one of strategic myopia.
The IRGC, long the spearhead of Tehran’s expansionist ambitions and a state-within-a-state that thrives on destabilization, now finds in Algeria a new theater for its operations.
This is not merely a matter of bilateral cooperation between Algiers and Tehran; it is the harbinger of a wider struggle that risks engulfing North Africa, destabilizing Europe’s doorstep, and shifting the geopolitical equilibrium of the Mediterranean in ways profoundly inimical to the interests of democracies.
For decades, Algeria has wrapped itself in the mantle of nonalignment, presenting itself as an unyielding champion of sovereignty and independence, a regional power beholden to none. But beneath this carefully maintained facade, its growing collusion with the IRGC is emblematic of a new and dangerous departure.
Intelligence reports, diplomatic briefings, and well-sourced analyses now converge on a singular reality: Algeria is poised to become Iran’s forward operating base in North Africa. Through it, Tehran seeks not only to exert ideological influence but to operationalize its wider vision of strategic dominance – one that threatens the security of Europe and beyond.
THE FIRST theater of this creeping entrenchment is, undoubtedly, the Sahel. A region already teetering on the edge due to jihadist insurgencies, criminal syndicates, and feeble state control, the Sahel provides fertile ground for Iranian proxies to embed themselves.
Algeria, long accused of tacitly supporting destabilizing actors when it suits its interests, now stands accused of allowing IRGC-linked networks to carve out a presence, training militants, channeling arms, and exporting Tehran’s doctrine of militant revolution.
How Iran is impacting the Polisario Front operations in Western Sahara
More worrying still, the IRGC’s fingerprints are increasingly visible in the Polisario Front’s operations in Western Sahara, an alarming echo of Iran’s well-worn strategy of leveraging non-state actors to expand its reach – whether Hezbollah in Lebanon or the Houthis in Yemen.
Of course, the IRGC is not alone in its maneuvering – it takes two to tango. Algeria’s clever use of subversion tactics, disguising military installations behind civilian infrastructure and weaponizing the language of liberation for imperialist objectives, stretches back decades. A declassified CIA report dated April 1967 sounded the alarm over Algeria’s military buildup in the Tindouf Airfield, located less than 25 km. from the disputed Western Sahara territory.
The Tindouf area has since become a Polisario stronghold, rebranded a “refugee camp” by Algerian authorities solely for the purposes of receiving humanitarian aid that the militia invariably exploits to support its grotesque human rights violations and terrorist activities.
The international community has conveniently chosen to ignore that Islamic State operations in the Sahel region were spearheaded by former Polisario fighters. With their shared love for jihad and chaos, Algiers and Tehran are a match made in heaven.
Yet this is not merely a matter of sub-state warfare or superficial memoranda. Iran’s ambitions in Algeria extend to the economic and strategic spheres, where control over vital trade arteries and access to natural resources form part of a broader strategy of leverage.
Algeria, rich in hydrocarbons, strategically perched along Mediterranean trade routes, and with direct access to sub-Saharan Africa, offers Iran the perfect bridgehead for exerting pressure on European markets.
If the IRGC gains a foothold in Algeria, it will not only be a question of exporting ideological radicalism but of seizing control over key supply chains, using energy politics as a cudgel against Europe, and embedding itself in the lifeblood of global commerce.
THE WEST cannot afford to sleepwalk into this geopolitical ambush. The danger does not end with Algeria becoming a mere client state of Tehran’s theocratic regime. The real nightmare scenario is the systemic weaponization of migration routes. Algeria, already a key transit hub for migrants seeking passage into Europe, could become a vector for radicalized operatives, funneling extremists into the heart of the continent under the guise of humanitarian exodus.
This is a playbook we have seen before – from the Syrian war to the corridors of Libya – where instability has been cynically exploited to shift the balance of power and disrupt European stability.
Algeria itself stands accused of leveraging the “Harraga” phenomenon to wreak havoc on already strained relations between Spain and Morocco. That Iran, via its IRGC tentacles, would utilize this route should not be doubted; that Europe remains largely blind to this looming threat is an indictment of its strategic inertia.
This is not paranoia; it is historical precedent repeating itself with alarming precision. Iran’s strategic doctrine has always been one of gradual encroachment, gaining footholds in regions of instability, fortifying its positions through proxies, and then wielding asymmetric power to exact geopolitical concessions.
Algeria, willingly or otherwise, is walking straight into this embrace. And if the West fails to act now – if it fails to counter this burgeoning alliance with economic, diplomatic, and strategic pressure – it will find itself confronting the consequences not in the distant deserts of North Africa, but on the streets of Paris, Berlin, and London.
The warning signs are there, flashing red, for all who care to look. Now that the IRGC is on the move in Algeria, the West can no longer afford to view the Western Sahara issue as a “forgotten conflict” whose resolution is left to fate.
The time to act is now. For if Algeria completes its transformation into an IRGC outpost, the costs will not be borne solely by North Africans but by Europe itself. And history will not be kind to those who saw the storm gathering and chose to do nothing.
Catherine Perez-Shakdam is the executive director of the Forum for Foreign Relations and Aurele Tobelem is the director of research at the Forum for Foreign Relations.