After the victory of the Christian Democrats in the elections in Germany, there has been a drastic shift away from the coalition government made up of Social Democrats (SPD), the Green Party, and formerly the Liberal Democrats (FDP). The SPD has reached a historic low point after the elections, with only 16.4% (-9.3%), the Greens 11.6% (-3.1%), and the FDP failed to meet the 5% threshold to sit in the next Bundestag. Given these dramatic shifts, the dissatisfaction of the German population with the outgoing government is undeniable.
The Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) won this election with a total of 28.5% of the votes. It is expected that they will form a new coalition government with the much weakened SPD, which, if successful, has significant challenges ahead, not least of all that the true champion of this election is the AfD – the so-called “Alternative for Germany”; a party, which German domestic security services have officially classified (verified by a Higher Administrative Court), as a potentially far-right extremist party. The court found that “there is sufficient evidence that the AfD pursues goals that run against the human dignity of certain groups and against democracy.”
With a gain of 10.4%, this right-wing populist political party, which has continued to radicalize over time, will send 152 delegates (out of 630) into the Bundestag. This is worrisome for the Jewish establishment and democrats as a whole, especially in light of German history. And given how Germany tiptoed around many of the populist topics of the AfD in the past, these election results were more than predictable for those of us who are active in the fight against antisemitism and right-wing extremism. Suppose the warnings of these election results are not taken seriously, with decisive consequences. In that case, the AfD might win the next elections.
Likewise, while it is currently still unthinkable for any democratic party to enter into a coalition government with the AfD, this is by no means guaranteed in the future. If Democrats do not find practical ways to deal with the populist themes of the AfD, including antisemitism, immigration, and Islamic extremism, while also tackling the misinformation, inflammatory rhetoric, polemics, and agitation spread by this party, their strength and influence will continue to grow.
Now, the good news is that Friedrich Merz and many of the members of the CDU/CSU understand this threat and are finally showing a genuine willingness to tackle these themes (and other topics dear to us).
In the past, there were great fears about being branded as “racist” when it came to immigration and integration, while millions of new migrants – particularly from the Middle East, frequently with very different, non-Western values – were allowed into the country. With rising terrorist and other extremist threats and with mounting crime, including sexual assaults, by a minority of criminal immigrants, the AfD was virtually one of the only ones to address the public fears and promise change for Germans.
Today, there is a true appreciation for the fact that new measures are needed to condition immigration on acceptance of certain “ground rules”, including making German citizenship conditional on accepting German historical responsibilities, (which includes accepting Israel’s undeniable right to exist). While the right to free speech is integral to Germany’s constitution, there is a clear understanding that there are limits to “free speech” and that there is a need to combat hatred, incitement, racism, and particularly antisemitism (as defined by the IHRA definition).
Thus, we can hope for a new government that will help limit the hate-filled pro-Hamas marches that have become rampant across Germany and go after the sources of incitement and extremism. We expect Germany to target terrorist entities in Germany (and Europe), whether they be called PFLP, Samidoun, Masar Badil, or whatever other new names they give themselves while maintaining the same players and funders pulling the strings, as outlined in the recently published report by Honestly Concerned.
Additionally, voices within the CDU/CSU have expressed their willingness to condition their agreement to coalition contracts on the understanding that German financing of UNRWA will be halted given the findings regarding terrorist cooperation, not least since October 7th. Friedrich Merz’s willingness to guarantee Prime Minister Netanyahu that he could safely visit Germany despite the ICC arrest warrant is also a hopeful indication of what to expect from his government regarding Israel and his understanding of the German “raison d’état.” To this effect, we wish Friedrich Merz lots of success in forming his new coalition government and taking steps to bring voters back into the democratic mainstream.
Sacha Stawski is the President of Honestly Concerned, a German initiative, which fights for unbiased media coverage of the Middle East conflict and against antisemitism. Stawski is also heading the pro-Israel advocacy group ILI - I Like Israel.
This op-ed is published in partnership with a coalition of organizations that fight antisemitism across the world. Read the previous article by Masha Merkulova.