Former British prime minister Lord Palmerston famously stated: “We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow.”
Any examination of Israel’s policy in Gaza should therefore start with a clarification and definition of Israel’s vital interests. In the Gaza operation, these interests are the prompt return of the hostages and ensuring Israel’s future security, namely so that October 7 does not recur.
Presumably, proper preparations by the IDF can prevent a future land incursion by terrorists; such preparations were woefully absent in October 2023.
In addition, Israel has to ensure that whoever controls Gaza can no longer import or manufacture rockets or other types of weapons or artillery, as well as strategic materials that can threaten the country. This requires supervision by an outside body; the Western states and Egypt have apparently expressed willingness to carry out such supervision.
Hamas is an autocratic, antisemitic regime that imposes an extreme form of Islam on its population. It would be in Israel’s interest to see Hamas replaced by a moderate regime, but it is questionable whether this is indeed a vital interest or an attainable one.
None of Israel’s neighbors, except perhaps Lebanon, are democratic. Israel succeeded, for many years, to maintain a quiet border with Syria, although it was subject to the cruel dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad. It is hoped that we will be able to continue to maintain quiet on the border with Syria now under the rule of Ahmed al-Sharaa, himself hardly a paragon of democracy.
Changing regimes in Gaza
If Hamas does not pose a security threat, then is it our business to determine what regime Gaza will have? Are we capable of doing so? Israel’s attempt to try and change regimes in our neighbors, as we did in Lebanon, was not a success.
It is highly unlikely that Hamas can be replaced by a liberal democracy. Therefore, it is recommended that Israel’s policy in Gaza should concentrate on our vital security interests; it is doubtful whether a regime change in Gaza is one of them.
The writer is a professor of international law at the Law Faculty of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. He is a former counselor for political affairs at the Israeli Embassy in Washington and past legal adviser and deputy director-general of the Foreign Ministry.