In a sermon delivered after Eid al-Fitr prayers, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei dismissed claims that “the zealous youths of the regional nations” are “[Iran’s] proxies,” yet openly labeled Israel as the “only one proxy force in this region”– one that “must be uprooted.”
His rhetoric left no doubt that he sees Israel as an extension of “colonizers” or American and Western influence. But what if the unthinkable happened?
Could the US abandon its support for Israel?
What if the US, whether due to internal turmoil or shifting geopolitical priorities, abandoned its long-standing support for Israel? While Israeli leaders are not ostriches with their heads in the sand, Israeli strategic planners must treat this scenario as a genuine possibility and prepare accordingly.
Israel’s pursuit of nuclear capability in the 1960s was not just a deterrent against its immediate neighbors but a safeguard against existential threats. Today, Israel’s arsenal undoubtedly contains capabilities that remain undisclosed. The imperative to secure its survival has shaped its doctrine for decades, and the prospect of American disengagement would only heighten this need for self-reliance.
The policies of former US president Barack Obama, particularly his approach to Iran’s nuclear ambitions, alarmed Israel. More recently, the pro-Hamas slogans echoing on American university campuses after the October 7 attacks have underscored a disturbing shift in Western sentiment.
Israel’s leaders are no strangers to history, and they recognize the signs of a US trapped in a spiraling decline; the US is grappling with deepening social and political divisions, and an unforeseen crisis could push it into outright chaos. Israel must hedge against such risks.
One strategy is strengthening alliances beyond the framework of traditional state-to-state diplomacy.
New takes on traditional diplomatic strategies
While the Abraham Accords represent a breakthrough in Israeli-Arab relations, they follow a top-down model dictated by political elites. Yet, anti-Israel sentiments remain deeply ingrained among the Arab populace.
A more enduring approach may lie in bottom-up alliances – specifically, forging closer ties with the Kurds, a nation who, like the Israelis, have long fought for self-determination in a hostile region.
Unlike many nationalist movements in the Middle East, the Kurds have never framed their national struggle through an Islamist lens – whether Sunni or Shia – despite enduring oppression from Islamic regimes in Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Turkey.
Their battle against terrorism and extremism aligns naturally with Israel’s interests. A strong Kurdish-Israeli alliance could not only enhance regional stability but also serve as a counterweight to Iranian and Turkish expansionism, especially in Syria.
If the US truly seeks to reshape the Middle East’s balance of power, it should break longstanding taboos and facilitate deeper Kurdish-Israeli cooperation between Israel and the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq and the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES).
An Israeli-Kurdish alliance would boost regional stability
Such an alliance should evolve into a formal strategic partnership – aligned with the spirit of the Abraham Accords – one that could pave the way to an independent Kurdistan, ultimately enhancing regional stability and long-term security for Israel.
The geopolitical chessboard is shifting, and Israel must ensure it remains several moves ahead. The time to secure alternative alliances and bolster independent deterrence is now.
The writer is a Middle East Forum fellow and the author of Towards an Independent Kurdistan: Self-Determination in International Law.