Prime Minister Netanyahu’s recent visit to Washington dealt with two main issues that could become points of contention in the otherwise warm relations between PM Netanyahu and President Trump—tariffs and the Iran nuclear program, the latter of which we will focus on.
Trump’s public statements, up until the last meeting, indicated broad agreement with the PM on the Iranian issue, including presenting a real and credible US military threat.
However, recent developments, especially Trump’s declaration confirming entering immediate high-level negotiations with Iran in hopes of reaching an agreement before resorting to other solutions, raised serious concern in Israel.
A few weeks ago, Trump approached Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, with a letter proposing direct negotiations. Khamenei scornfully rejected the approach, though not definitively. Trump has repeatedly warned Iran that it can either “make a deal” with the US or face “military consequences”.
Simultaneously, the US and Russia have been discussing the need to open negotiations to reach a new nuclear deal. More worrisome, echoing the events of 2012-2013, came the reports of US-Iran talks in Oman, culminating in Trump’s announcement of an immediate start of high-level discussions there.
Trump’s warnings to Iran are undoubtedly severe, and his vision for the state of Iran’s nuclear program at the conclusion of negotiations is exactly what is needed. However, the path chosen to achieve this goal appears to be wrong.
Any talks or entering negotiations before Iran meets strict and comprehensive preconditions is a dangerous mistake. The focus should not solely be on the final desired shape of an agreement, even though both the Prime Minister and the great Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) organization have detailed what a “good deal” should look like. The real focus must be on the demands placed on Iran before any negotiations begin.
This was the biggest and fatal mistake of the negotiations under Obama, which led to the flawed JCPOA. The negotiators began with the right demands, as required by UN Security Council resolutions, but the final agreement granted Iran a relatively short path to industrial-scale enrichment, enabling a rapid breakout to nuclear weapons, along with sanctions lifting and a release of hundreds of billions in frozen funds.
Iran has consistently violated international agreements, deceived inspectors, and developed nuclear capabilities under the curtain of diplomacy. Any deal that merely seeks to improve the existing agreement, without requiring a full preliminary dismantlement of all of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and capabilities, will lead to another disaster.
Dismantling Iran’s nuclear program
Any agreement must fundamentally and preemptively dismantle the three pillars of Iran’s nuclear program as a precondition:
- Fissile material production: Iran must fully eliminate its enriched uranium stockpiles and destroy its centrifuges and conversion/enrichment facilities.
- Weaponization development: Iran must cease all planning and development related to nuclear weapon systems, fully disclose its past activities, and dismantle all research centers involved in warhead technologies, often disguised as academic or civilian institutions.
- Delivery systems: Iran must halt and destroy its ballistic missile program designed to carry nuclear warheads.These steps must occur before negotiations begin, under US leadership, verification, and supervision.
Iran must not be allowed to retain any nuclear capability on its soil. The world, led by former president Obama, made a big mistake by signing an agreement that legitimized Tehran while it continued secret development of its weapons program. Trump cannot, and clearly does not want to, repeat Obama’s mistakes. It is crucial to clarify the dangerous implications of recent decisions.
It is highly likely that Iran will reject such preconditions for starting talks. Based on recent statements by key Iranian negotiators, it is clear their primary goal is to obtain sanctions relief and unfreeze funds while stalling and gaining time to recover from their recent blows and to prevent an Israeli strike while negotiations are ongoing.
Israel must prepare for a wide-scale campaign to neutralize the Iranian nuclear threat, ideally with the US, but independently if necessary.
Priorities must shift: the weaponization activities and the highly enriched uranium stockpiles must be dismantled first, followed by, or simultaneously with, the destruction of enrichment facilities like Natanz and Fordow, advanced centrifuges, and underground sites currently under construction.
Destroying the nuclear facilities alone, without first dealing with weaponization and highly enriched uranium stockpiles, would be a big mistake. Iran’s extensive work on weapon design, combined with its highly enriched uranium and some advanced centrifuges, could allow it to quickly produce a bomb in a small underground site, even without Natanz and Fordow, and even seek international legitimacy following the attacks on its facilities.
Full Israel-US cooperation is essential. Such a partnership will significantly strengthen deterrence and operational capabilities for this complex task. Yet, Israel must also be ready to act alone, if needed. Washington and Jerusalem must work together to eliminate the most dangerous threat to Israel’s existence, one that also threatens the US.
Due to Tehran’s behavior and repeated violations of its commitments, the era of diplomacy is over. The last thing Trump wants is to be compared to Obama. The lessons from 2015 must be clear to avoid another disastrous deal. No negotiations should begin until Iran fully dismantles its nuclear program. We’ve learned the hard way that the right declarations and goals at the start of talks don’t guarantee the desired outcome at the end.
Brig. Gen. (res.) Jacob Nagel is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) and a professor at Technion. He served as Prime Minister Netanyahu's national security advisor and as the head of the National Security Council (acting).