Are new elections the answer to the present political mess? The answer to this depends on where you stand politically.
There can be no doubt that none of the current coalition partners is interested in early elections, which doesn’t stop some of them from repeatedly threatening to bring down the government if various demands are not met.
We do not know the accuracy of the various recent opinion polls – all of which, except one (Channel 14), repeatedly show the current coalition losing its comfortable majority of 68 Knesset seats and moving to well below 60 seats, with some even below 50 seats.
Thus, it is clear that the vested interest of all parties/election lists that make up the current coalition is not to hold new elections before the designated date, toward the end of October 2026. They all abhor the thought of returning the Center/Left to power.
Although there is general agreement on most issues, this does not mean there are no manifestations of disharmony within the current coalition. For example, there are different opinions over the mobilization of haredi (ultra-Orthodox) men into the IDF or some form of national service.
Views also differ over prioritizing the release of all 59 hostages – dead or alive – who are still being held by Hamas or Palestinian Islamic Jihad since October 7, 2023, as a bargaining card in future negotiations with Israel. The main concern is that many of the 2 or 24 hostages still believed to be alive might not survive for much longer unless released soon.
Netanyahu says hostages retrieval still an important war goal
Last Thursday, in a speech at the International Bible Contest at the Jerusalem Theatre, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that though returning all of the hostages is an important goal of the Israel-Hamas War, the supreme goal is absolute victory. This declaration caused controversy not only between the Right and Left, and between the hostages’ families and the government, but also within the coalition.
Other issues that the various parties in the coalition are not in complete agreement include what should be done regarding the settlement and annexation of territories of the Land of Israel that are currently not under Israeli sovereignty; the details of the judicial reform/revolution being advanced by Justice Minister Yariv Levin, and Knesset Constitution, Law, and Justice Committee chair Simcha Rothman; and the extent and direction of government intervention in the media that Communications Minister Shlomo Karhi advocates.
Just as it is clear why the coalition parties abhor the thought of early elections, it is clear why the opposition parties want elections to the 26th Knesset to be held as soon as possible. They all believe that the 37th government is the worst one Israel has ever had, not only because of its policies (or absence thereof) but because they consider some individual members of the coalition unsuitable or unworthy.
The prime minister himself is viewed as having passed his prime, not only in his physical appearance but in his public statements, ingenuity, and the quantity of factual inaccuracies and open lies he utters.
An especially embarrassing example was during his appearance at the Bible Contest last week, when he declared that 18 persons (i.e., Palestinians) suspected of arson – which had allegedly led to the massive fires near Jerusalem last Wednesday morning and consumed some 2,000 hectares of wooded areas – had been detained.
The Israel Police, which is not suspected of left-wing inclinations, declared in response that it did not know where this figure came from, and that only three suspects had been detained, only one of whom had been caught red-handed.
Netanyahu is also accused by the opposition of refusing to take responsibility for mishaps (to use a minimalist term) that have occurred during his current premiership, including the catastrophe of October 7, 2023 for which he accuses the security forces exclusively.
The opposition does not necessarily say that the prime minister is guilty of what happened that day but points out that as the country’s leader, he bears a good deal of responsibility. Netanyahu is also criticized for objecting to the formation of a state commission of inquiry that would investigate the catastrophe and point to those responsible and/or guilty.
The opposition also claims that Netanyahu’s own personal and political survival (especially since he was indicted in November 2019) have been his primary motivation for remaining prime minister and keeping his government together at any cost. Netanyahu gave Otzma Yehudit leader Itamar Ben-Gvir and Religious Zionist Party leader Bezalel Smotrich as much power as he did for this reason, even though he must have reservations about the ideologies and practical plans of both.
Before the 2021 elections, in an interview with Yonit Levi on Channel 12, Netanyahu stated that he would not appoint Ben-Gvir to the government because the latter was not fit to be a minister nor chair a Knesset committee. But in 2021, it was not Netanyahu who formed the government; it was Naftali Bennett.
Regarding his haredi partners, Netanyahu has done everything in his power to please them – whether on the issue of enlistment to the IDF, the provision of government funds for the haredi education system, or housing and welfare services.
It should, however, be recalled that when he was finance minister in Ariel Sharon’s government over 20 years ago, he made it clear that he would like to see the haredim integrate into mainstream Israeli society and was willing to achieve this goal through their pockets.
Another accusation made by the opposition against Netanyahu’s government, and against him personally, is that they are intent on wrecking Israel’s liberal democracy and breaking down its system of gatekeepers and checks and balances. There are also accusations of corruption – perhaps not major instances, but corruption nonetheless (Qatargate, for example).
As expected, Netanyahu calls all these accusations lies, just like his 2019 indictments, saying that the real problem is the “deep state,” made up of liberal has-beens, which prevents right-wing governments from realizing their policies.
Only the future will tell what the final outcome of all this mess will be. However, there is no doubt that neither the government nor the opposition feels comfortable these days; one side will do its utmost to prevent early elections, and the other will try to make them happen.
The writer has written journalistic and academic articles, as well as several books, on international relations, Zionism, Israeli politics, and parliamentarism. From 1994-2010, she worked in the Knesset library and the Knesset Research and Information Center.