In a significant turn of events, US President Donald Trump announced late on May 10 that India and Pakistan have agreed to a “full and immediate ceasefire” after intensive negotiations mediated by the United States.
Trump announced the ceasefire after a night of intensive discussions with key leaders from both nations, including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Trump’s verbal praise of both leaders for choosing “common sense and great intelligence” reflects diplomatic acumen and acknowledges the precarious balance both nations must navigate.
The US president shared this news on his Truth Social platform, indicating his investment in the outcome and his ambition to position the United States as a critical arbiter in South Asian affairs.
The recent spike in tensions between India and Pakistan was alarming, marked by a series of military confrontations, including drone strikes and air raids. Following the tragic Pahalgam terror attack on April 22, which claimed the lives of 26 civilians, the Indian government accused Pakistan of harboring and supporting the terrorist groups responsible.
In response, India launched Operation Sindoor, targeting what it described as terrorist infrastructure across the border. Pakistan retaliated with airstrikes on Indian military installations, pushing the region to the brink of full-scale conflict. In this context, Trump’s intervention appears both timely and consequential.
Direct dialogue
While India officially confirmed the ceasefire and acknowledged the calls between the two countries’ military leaderships, it notably refrained from attributing the truce to US mediation, emphasizing that the dialogue was direct.
This cautious approach from India reflects its historical preference for bilateral engagement in resolving complex issues, particularly relating to Kashmir, a long-standing flashpoint between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.
Indian officials reiterated that the ceasefire does not indicate a willingness to engage in third-party mediation regarding Kashmir, a point they have consistently upheld.
On the other hand, Pakistani officials openly expressed their appreciation for Trump’s role, with Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar underscoring Islamabad’s commitment to peace while ensuring that its sovereignty remains intact.
The fact that Pakistani leadership has embraced US mediation underscores a strategic pivot. Pakistan finds itself in a delicate position as it seeks to balance its reliance on China with the necessity of maintaining ties with the United States.
Unique opportunity
This dynamic presents a unique opportunity for the US to strengthen its influence in a region that is increasingly pivotal in the context of global geopolitics.
Trump’s mediation reinforces America’s standing as a relevant actor in South Asian security issues, particularly at a time when China’s influence has been expanding through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Beijing’s commitments to Pakistan represent a substantial investment in the region, raising concerns in Washington regarding the balance of power in South Asia.
By positioning the US as a peacemaker broker, Trump allows America to advocate for stability in a region that is crucial to its strategic interests, encompassing counterterrorism efforts and the containment of Chinese influence.
Furthermore, Trump’s proposed engagement with both nations to find a long-term solution to the Kashmir dispute, despite India’s historical resistance, opens a door for renewed dialogues that could address one of the most contentious issues in the region.
Fostering trade
The prospect of fostering trade relationships can also emerge from a stable ceasefire, potentially benefiting all parties involved and ensuring that terrorism and regional instability take a back seat to economic development.
However, the durability of this ceasefire will ultimately depend on the commitment from both India and Pakistan to adhere to their agreements, particularly given the volatile history that characterizes their interactions.
Early signs indicate that despite the optimism surrounding the ceasefire, violations were reported in Jammu and Kashmir shortly after the announcement, highlighting the persistent challenges that lie ahead for both nations and their ability to maintain a constructive dialogue.
Commitment to allies
The geopolitical implications of this truce extend beyond India and Pakistan, affecting the broader strategic landscape in South Asia. The ability of the US to facilitate peace not only underscores its diplomatic leverage but also reinforces its commitment to supporting allies in the face of growing authoritarianism in China.
As the world observes the unfolding of this ceasefire, the efficacy of Trump’s mediation will serve as a litmus test for American diplomacy in a region of critical importance.
The writer is an India-based lawyer specializing in cross-border trade and investments and a senior fellow with the South Asia Democratic Forum in Brussels.