US President Donald Trump’s recent foreign policy decisions on the Middle East have seemingly sidelined the Israeli government.
During Netanyahu’s latest visit to the White House, Trump suddenly announced the commencement of negotiations with Iran to try to forge a new and improved nuclear agreement, thereby undercutting Israel’s preference for a military solution to dealing with Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
The United States blindsided Israel after announcing an agreement they reached with the Houthis in Yemen that will end the attacks on ships in the Red Sea, in return ending US airstrikes in Yemen. However, this agreement did not include the termination of firing drones and ballistic missiles at Israel.
Will US delink Israel peace from a nuclear Saudi?
Additionally, a recent report announced that the US is ready to delink the requirement of normalization with Israel in exchange for an agreement on a civil nuclear project in Saudi Arabia.
During Trump’s upcoming and highly anticipated trip to the region, he is set to meet with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and not with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In addition, reports have been published indicating that Trump is growing increasingly impatient with Netanyahu and is inclined to push forward with or without Israel.
In Israel, there has been some criticism of Trump in response to this trend. For instance, Likud MK Nissim Vaturi addressed the president in a tweet that was later deleted, saying, “He should remember that he was elected to the presidency riding on the wings of support for Israel.”
Why is Netanyahu and his coalition staying silent?
Nevertheless, Netanyahu and central figures within his coalition have remained silent.
Netanyahu certainly does not want to be on bad terms with Trump so early in his term, especially at this critical time when the option for military action against Iran is still on the table – as long as an agreement between Tehran and Washington has yet to be signed.
However, Trump’s current approach should not come as a surprise to anyone.
Almost free hand
First, Trump has given Israel an almost completely free hand for its military activity throughout the region in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Yemen. This places Trump in stark contrast with his predecessor, Joe Biden, who voiced much more criticism for Israel’s military conduct and regularly called for “restraint.”
Moreover, Trump is unsurprisingly pursuing an America-first foreign policy that first and foremost serves its interests. Trump’s recent actions may also serve as a keen reminder that Trump will not follow Netanyahu’s lead on regional affairs. Rather, Netanyahu is expected to follow Trump’s lead.
In addition, perhaps Trump’s policies are assuming the obvious: that the war needs to end and that it cannot be won merely on the battlefield but that some kind of political alternative to Hamas is needed in order to ultimately remove the group from power, despite the Israeli Right’s persistence in assuming otherwise.
Most importantly, although there is a natural tendency to think that Trump’s sidelining of Israel harms its position in the region, it could actually have a positive effect on Israel.
'Day after'
After over a year and a half of war, Netanyahu and his government have yet to communicate a coherent long-term, strategic political vision for the “day after” the end of the war.
This is the result of two possibilities. Either Netanyahu and his government suffer from a serious lack of political initiative and perhaps also imagination regarding how to deal with the challenges Israel faces in Gaza and the broader region or, perhaps, the chosen strategy is to wait until someone else solves the problem for Israel.
Regional countries such as the UAE have already communicated that their involvement in Gaza, whether as a peacekeeping force or through funding, will only take place within a political framework.
However, Trump’s actions may produce the effect of compelling Netanyahu to initiate a substantive foreign policy vision that ends the war, repairs Israel’s position in the region and the world, and looks beyond the survival of his coalition. This result would constitute a positive development for the current Israeli government.
The writer is director of research and policy at the Economic Cooperation Foundation (ECF) and a PhD candidate in international relations at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.